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Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
@Convertbond
Apr 6, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
*JAPAN'S ABE SAYS RULING PARTY BACKS $988 BILLION STIMULUS

Boom...
Abe to Kuroda over breakfast:

"If debt to GDP of 250% didn't work, let us try 300.."

(2)
Gold likes the Kuroda MMT afterburners in Japan today... Trend break alert: Image
Since Q3 2018, gold has been kicking the S&P 500's ass, why? Larger central bank balance sheets.

#FOMC
#BOJ
#BOE
#ECB
#PBOC

(4) Image
Major bullish break in gold this morning. Join our institutional chat, reach out to us on Bloomberg, value add.

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More from @Convertbond

Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
Dec 11
Hard Assets, Financial Repression, Regime Change

$RIO > $AMZN Amazon since 2021

*File under things you will NOT hear on CNBC. Bloomberg terminal data. Image
Power Grid, Big Data Centers -- Did the street finally figure out that Nvidia $NVDA 's expected growth trend needs copper names up another 100% from here?

*Copper miners > QQQ since 2020, 2021, 2023, 2024 Image
A decade ago, global copper production was 19.4mmt (million metric tons); today, it is near 23.7mmt, up 4.3mmt (22% growth). Now think of the decade ahead.

100 million robots
Rebuild the US power grid
900 new AI data centers
LA Rebuild
Ukraine Rebuild
Gaza Rebuild
Read 5 tweets
Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
Nov 3
Investment-Grade Bond Sales - pressure on prices below— the great crowd out. There are indeed AI (data center) bills to pay. After the META bond deal, last week's "drive-by" $30B surprise, now this:

*GOOGLE PARENT ALPHABET STARTS EIGHT-PART US DOLLAR BOND SALE - Bloomberg. Image
The weakness in investment-grade bonds, see the LQD move lower. It’s not credit weakness, it was a surprise supply crowd out. The colossal Meta bond deal on Thursday was of a surprise size. Weighed on the market, big time. They printed $30bln (purpose - AI capex funding).
The investment-grade bonds market was set up for a $120B in November supply, and then all of a sudden got $30bln by one issuer, as a drive-by (surprise overnight) on Thurs in advance. So then Friday. The IG market had to make more room for the coming supply, digestion issues.
Read 4 tweets
Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
Oct 11
Any asset class that is relentlessly promoted by strippers and charlatans, an “investment” that plunges 70% four times in a decade is NOT a store of value. Long term track records on crypto are meaningless garbage.
Over the last decade, Bitcoin has spent most of the time off 40 to 80% - see the red drawdowns below. You must be prepared for this price action. Personal capital must have a long-term view with a mission to add in to weaknesses. If you will need the $ inside the next 5 years, get out now.Image
The conundrum. The pump artist and strippers draw young people into this dangerous game at the highs. They need to find the greater fool to move the asset class further. Young people adopt a perceived long-term view: "I will never sell." Then, Bitcoin drops 70% and stays there.
Read 8 tweets
Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
Sep 30
Business Development Companies BDC’s Private Credit - the slime show is oozing to the surface. Borrower “First Brands” used a Lehman like Repo 105 move to hide leverage and screw investors. Two size frauds in the last 10 days, stay tuned!

First Brands was;

“selling inventory at quarter end with a promise to buy it back higher after to hide in an effort to show better cash flow and inventory mgmt and hide the fact that there was that much more debt"

"Larry, Lehman Repo 105 is alive and well. This time in private credit!” CIO NJ
The loss to “private credit’ investors could be as high as $40B. “First Brands” balance sheet looks like so many of the mortgage CDO structures from 2007-2008. They want to “hide the salami,” - hide the leverage to produce returns.
Read 10 tweets
Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
Sep 23
Someone MUST start calling out this BS, a sustainable, forward-looking power path???

USA Nuclear Fleet -- average reactor has a capacity of around 1 GW (97 GW total capacity from 94 reactors).

You need 10 reactors, each with a capacity of 1 GW, for Jensen's "one project." Image
Building a nuclear power plant in the US typically takes around 7 to 10 years, considering both planning and construction phases. Sure, the Trump DOE (Department of Energy) can cut this timeline down, but it's time to GET REAL. A must-read - "When Markets Speak" on this subject.
Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are designed to be built faster than traditional nuclear power plants, with construction times ranging from 2 to 7 years, depending on the design and regulatory approvals. Once again, Jensons' $NVDA pump festival is plagued by numerous issues.
Read 12 tweets
Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
Aug 28
U.S. Power Grid Stress and Colossal Impact

Over 15% of everyone’s 401k is crammed into two artificial intelligence focused stocks (Microsoft and Nvidia) without a sustainable plan for energy supply to support lofty growth assumptions.
“Never, ever invest in the present. You have to visualize the situation 18 months from now, and whatever that is, that’s where the price will be, not where it is today. If you invest in the present, you’re going to get run over.”

Stanley Druckenmiller

(2)
Jensen $NVDA (CEO) -- has done a great job of pumping up investors into the bull case, but he has an obligation to inform Nvidia shareholders on the risks to growth coming from energy bottlenecks in 2025-2028.
Read 7 tweets

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