Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ECB

Most recents (24)

Ein paar Überlegungen (man könnte Buchbände füllen) zur Finanzierung von Ausgaben, verursacht durch die Coronakrise, in der EU. #eurobonds #coronabonds #omt #ecb 1/11
Wie sich schon in der Staatsschuldenkrise 2012 gezeigt hat, reicht die Geldpolitik nicht aus, um wirtschaftlichen Schocks in einer Währungsunion angemessen zu begegnen. Glücklicherweise haben wir mittlerweile auch den #ESM. Aber werden die vorhandenen Mittel reichen? 2/11
Die Geldpolitik, d.h. die ECB, hat schon Schritte gesetzt: die Ausweitung des Wertpapierankaufprogramms mit dem sperrigen Titel „Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program“ um 750 Mrd. Euro bis Jahresende. Dazu kommen die technisch klingenden Liquiditätsprogramme LTRO u. TLTRO III. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
Is Germany ready for #Eurobonds and going soft on rules and austerity? The answers are Nein! and Nein!

Here is why. #Covid19 /thread
Germany is fully aware that the current health crisis is probably as much as #Europe can handle. Adding another layer – an Italian financial crisis – would be suicidal. /2
That means, Germany is fully ready to a) use the #ESM in full to help countries with funding difficulties, b) support the #ECB (politically) in maintaining market access for gov’ts, and c) use European funds where they add value. /3
Read 17 tweets
@ecb Amount is very big. However the #ECB is very wishy-washy on what is currently crucial:
“For the purchases of public sector securities, the benchmark allocation across jurisdictions will continue to be the capital key of the national central banks” 1/
@ecb Meaning that they will continue to buy mainly German bonds, which is not needed, while not buying massively, over the 33% limit, Italian and Greek bonds, which are going astray since the misstep of #Lagarde last week
@ecb But at the same time:
“To the extent that some self-imposed limits might hamper action that the #ECB is required to take in order to fulfil its mandate, the Governing Council will consider revising them (etc)”
Meaning that they can change mind and focus on Italian & Greek bonds
Read 5 tweets
Reading all these calls for ‘stimulus’, one wonders, if Constantine XI had had a ‘technology we call the printing press’ would his city not have fallen to the besieging Ottomans in 1453.
Shame he hadn’t heard of Gutenberg’s newly invented gizmo...
#Fed #UST #coronavirus #ECB
“The bad news, Tommy, iss for your ze war iss over. Ze good is, your RAF has parachuted in a packet of £5 notes to ease your captivity”
#coronavirus #stimulus #centralbanks #HelicopterMoney
Imagine if, during the Berlin Airlift, General Lucius Clay had not bothered flyng in food and fuel, but had just dropped Greenbacks.

You think Stalin might have chuckled?
#stimulus #coronavirus #COVID2019 #centralbanks #fiscal
Read 9 tweets
What does Lagarde’s comment that “We are not here to close spreads, there are other tools and other actors to deal with these issues” mean? Why are economists up in arms? A quick thread. #ECB #Eurozone #Covid_19 1/
These comments are seen to refer to the Outright Monetary Transactions Programme (OMT), which was part of former ECB President Mario Draghi’s pledge to do ‘whatever it takes’ to save the Eurozone. Under the #OMT, it was possible to purchase debt securities on the market. 2/
OMT would involve outright transactions in secondary sovereign bond markets aiming at “safeguarding an appropriate monetary policy transmission and the singleness of the monetary policy”. “Strict and effective conditionality” was required. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Really no need for self-congratulations, this European Council teleconference was incredibly disappointing for the following reasons (thread): @MatinaStevis @quatremer @jdomerchet @MESandbu @adam_tooze
The conclusions fail to agree on a common EU line on testing, quarantine, containment and social distancing leaving Italy alone to take the boldest measures when they should be undertaken across the EU consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…
In line with the Health Ministers meeting on March 6th, HoSG also failed to lift exports bans on medical supplies (mask, respiratory aid kits) displaying no sign of solidarity and resource pooling whatsoever euobserver.com/social/147659
Read 8 tweets
1/11 A thread on the #euro and why I think its existence is about to be tested.
2/11 #Europe is about to face a simultaneous endogenous & exogenous economic shock. The #COVID19 is creating multi-level disruptions, and the #EU will need to act swiftly to address them. However, history has shown that #EU's decision-making process is very rigid. #euro
3/11 Yesterday, the European Commission pledged 25bn to tackle the economic crisis caused by the #coronavirus outbreak. This amount is equal to ~0.15% of #EU's GDP. Hence, bolder moves will be needed to address the upcoming economic disruption. #euro

news.trust.org/item/202003101…
Read 11 tweets
Altijd leuk als mensen een #thread maken over hun ideeën.
@PietLekkerkerk maakte een thread over de #EU-standpunten van #FvD omdat hij vindt dat deze standpunten onzinnig zijn.
Hier👇zijn thread en mijn antwoord.
#Draad!
1/31
Piet vraagt (tweet 3👇) naar de onderbouwing voor 2 beweringen van #FvD:

-dat de EU ons miljarden kost
-dat economieën in Zuid-Europa kapot gaan door de #EU

Eerst gaan we kijken naar de miljarden.
2/31
Piet stelt dat het ‘maar’ 1 miljard per jaar is.
Zijn linkje werkt niet meer, dus ik heb zelf even gegoogeld en kwam hier terecht.
Volgens de EU zelf👇 betaalde NL in 2017 bijna 2 miljard meer dan het ontving.
3/31
europa.eu/european-union…
Read 32 tweets
Coronavirus and India - A thread about the distribution and impact of Coronavirus -

Coronavirus, started in China, is now spreading around the world. India is not decoupled with other nations with regards to the spread of Coronavirus.
Let’s see the distribution & impact of this deadly disease -

#CoronaOutbreak #Coronvirus #ItalyCoronavirus #irancoronavirus #indiacoronavirus
Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected. Check out the Virus & Human death rates -

#COVID2019 #swineflu #SARSCoV2
Read 13 tweets
If you've been following #Global #Capital #Markets, you'll have noted a significant rebound in some of the world's key stock market indices. This follows a "correction" in the wake of #COVID19. The rebound largely comes on the back of #CentralBank commitment to "lower for longer"
While #CentralBank commitment to "lower for longer" might help rally markets today, it is still imperative for us to consider the #Global #MonetaryPolicy #Toolbox and if policy makers will have enough space to "keep cutting" or providing "stimulus" moving forward.
Below are #CentralBank meeting dates for March 1st to 7th 2020. From this list, Banks that usually "move the needle" as it where, are Bank of #Australia & the Bank of #Canada. As it so happens, Bank of Australia cut policy rate by 25bps to 0.5% citing #COVID19 as downside risk.
Read 7 tweets
Many are calling for a rate cut on the #Fed, but there's very little central banks can do at this point.

A thread on, why #centralbanks will be unable to stop any repercussions from the #CoronavirusOutbreak .

We naturally start with the balance sheets. 👇1/12
Which are just massive.

The very role of any easing (quantitative or normal) is to push interest rates down.

In addition, it was the purpose of QE -programs to also create a "wealth effect", by increasing the values of financial assets and making people feel "rich". 2/
We detailed the channels of effects of QE programs in the Q-Review 1/2018. 👉gnseconomics.com/wp-content/upl…

Even today, the effects are not understood by all, but they depend heavily on the ability of the programs to push down (converge) the yields of bonds in different classes. 👇 2/
Read 13 tweets
It seems like a good time to remind everyone, why we are heading into an economic crisis.

A thread on the fragility of the global #economy.

There, naturally, is no other place to start than this.👇 1/
@CNBCJulianna @KellyCNBC @SaraEisen @GeoffCutmore
Yet, everything begins from the GFC.

Like we noted in a blog published on the 10th anniversary of the failure of Lehman Brothers, very little has actually been fixed in the global financial system.👇 2/
gnseconomics.com/2018/09/14/10-…
While the US banks are now bigger than before 2008 crisis, the biggest problems lay in Europe.

The European banks remained under-capitalized and filled with toxic assets, and the policies of the #ECB made everything worse. 👇 3/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/10/…
Read 14 tweets
#Draadje
De BELANGRIJKSTE punten uit de #CETA-speech van @thierrybaudet. De #EU onderhandelt namens 27(26) landen en dus NIET namens #Nederland.
#OneSizeFitsNoOne
Vergelijkbaar probleem: de #ECB KAN geen rentevoet vaststellen die voor elk EU-land goed is.
#Nederland wordt nu al gedwarsboomd BINNEN de #EU
Voorbeeld: #Frankrijk zorgde dat de NL #pulsvisserij kapot werd gemaakt. #CETA is een ondermijning van onze #democratie en #soevereiniteit.
De #anywheres profiteren, de #somewheres verliezen hun stem.
Kunnen we na #CETA nog voorwaarden stellen aan producten uit Canada? We geven iets weg wat we NOOIT meer terug kunnen krijgen. Lobbyisten van #multinationals krijgen NOG MEER invloed ten koste van de gewone burgers. De weg ligt open voor #procedeerclubs als #Urgenda.
Read 18 tweets
There are some deep misconceptions about the ability of #China to recover from the economic fallout of #coronavirus relatively quickly.

In this thread, I explain why this is unlikely, and why it's not China we should be truly worried about.

Let's start with the facts. 1/
It has been obvious for a while that China's economic growth lays in unsustainable ground.

If we deduct the growth of debt on the growth of GDP, we get an estimate on the 'organic' growth rate for Chinese #economy.

Which has been negative since 2011 (till 2017). 2/
This, unsurprisingly, has led to another pressing problem. China's productivity growth turned negative in 2012.

This, quite simply, means that China has been accumulating vast amounts of unprofitable investments, at least since 2011. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Lets talk about how important it is to frequently #Review #CentralBank #MonetaryPolicy #Frameworks...
I will set things off by pointing out that the various facets of #BusinessCycles (early, mid, late / boom & busts) consistently keep reminding us that what goes up, must come down. We might find ourselves in a prolonged #expansion, but eventually it decelerates into a #recession
As part of #Macroeconomic management (counter cyclical), a #CentralBank's objective (through its #MonetaryPolicy) is to maintain #PriceStability & #FinancialStability & in other cases, to promote #FullEmployment. It does this hand in hand with #FiscalPolicy...
Read 15 tweets
The whole point of the ‘market’ -as we #Asutrians have been telling you for over a century- is that the prices formed by the countless interactions of our teeming humanity convey info of the best possible quality to help co-ordinate the most fruitful use of scarce resources 1/x
- the greater the nodes on that market network; the more individual needs and preferences expressed upon it, the better the solutions: the more enriched the ‘spontaneous order’ it throws up.
The scrambling of price signals by state lever-pullers is one evil we often discuss - 2/x
- what we don’t address often enough in financial markets (theoretically possessed of the densest and most widespread, most rapid, most frictionless networks of all) is the deadening effect of overconcentration and the move to oligopoly under which we are now suffering - 3/x
Read 11 tweets
Let us talk about recent #Trends in #Global #Monetary #Policy, say, from 2015 to 2019...
Before I do that, let me give you an updated list of #CentralBank #MonetaryPolicyCommittee meetings for 2020...The matrix attached shows MPC dates for #CBL #SARB #FED and #ECB...
Surely we are conversant with the terms #dovish #hawkish #loose #tight #expansionary & #contractionary when it comes to #monetarypolicy jargon. What did the #global monetary policy landscape look like from 2015 to 2019? Was it loose or tight, expansionary or contractionary?
Read 12 tweets
I know it's difficult to grasp of what's about to hit with the #StockMarket constantly reaching all time highs, but so it did, e.g., in 1929.

Here are some of our latest works to explain, why 2020 is the year when we fall into the next crisis.
Thread 1/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/12/…
In August, we detailed, why central banks have become a threat to the #economy .

"The exceptional measures of central banks were crucial in the acute phase of the crisis, but [...], they turned into a serious and dangerous drag on the global economy."
2/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/08/…
In September, we explained why the turn to massive monetary easing is unlikely to reinvigorate the real #economy.

"the [...] economic downturn did not start as a result of trade issues, but rather from the diminution of massive Chinese debt-stimulus." 3/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/09/…
Read 12 tweets
I promised that we'd publish a new #Repo -blog today, with some "breaking info". Unfortunately, we discovered an error in the background info, which trashed the basis of our argument.

What we were trying to explain was this. 👇

Thread 1/
@Amdalleq @BradHuston
After the #Fed started its #repo -operations, #StockMarket has been in state of relentless melt-up.

As suggested by @zerohedge , hedge funds have been likely to use repo to increase their leverage.

But, what have the new repo-ops caused? 2/
zerohedge.com/markets/fed-wa…
Like nicely elaborated by @bondstrategist , they have at least "thrown the moral hazard out of the window".

The #Fed is guaranteeing liquidity in the #repo -market, which basically removes all the risk, at least, in the markets of short-term paper. 3/
Read 13 tweets
@droehnemeyer @Ismailtipi @Franz54712417 1.Null #Zinsen & #Negativzinsen sind der größte Raub der Financeplayer in Generationen!

Millionen Sparer & #Rentner verlieren einen großen Teil ihres Geldes und wir bekommen millionen Armutsrentner!

Und nur das Großkapital gewinnt (#Asset-#Bubbles, #Aktienrückkäufe).
@droehnemeyer @Ismailtipi @Franz54712417 2. Verkauft wurde diese #Enteignung die in 2009 läuft erst um die #Banken zu stützen, dann um die "Wirtschaft" zu stützen (fragt sich welche? Zombiefirmen?) und dann um 2% #Inflation zu erreichen: Davon sind wir weit weg! Aber das Spiel geht weiter!
#FED #EZB #ECB #TheBigShort
@droehnemeyer @Ismailtipi @Franz54712417 3. Und wie geht es weiter?
a) Der kleine Sparer wird in #Aktien gedrängt (und seine Miete wird wegen #Betongold teurer, er zahlt für #Teuerstrom & findet die "Luftsteuer", #CO2Steuer, geil!): Die big boys wissen wann es Zeit ist zu verkaufen (Jetzt!).
#TheBigShort #ECB
Read 8 tweets
Many are hoping for a "recovery of 2020", but unfortunately we're going to the opposite direction.

In our latest forecast -report, we detail the reasons why. 👇

Everything starts with from the notion that tremors in the credit markets have started. 1/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/12/…
Both the collateralized loan obligation (CLO) and leveraged-loans markets have been "acting out" since summer.

For example, the leveraged loans market was hit with a deluge of downgrades, exceeding upgrades at a pace last seen in 2009. 2/
wolfstreet.com/2019/11/04/lev…
Moreover, the IMF warned that in a global downturn, corporate debt at risk of default would rise to $19 trillion in eight major economies.

So, it's no wonder that there have been jitters also in the junk bond markets, while they have subdued lately. 3/
forbes.com/sites/mayrarod…
Read 11 tweets
...@bancaditalia CODADEPAJA
I prestiti TLTRO di #PopBari dal bilancio 2015..."anche a nome delle nuove controllate" chiesti ulteriori 516 milioni in 3 mesi...
Evento in stile
#ECB/@bancaditalia 's Ponzi Scheme... 👏👏
Read 317 tweets
I've written on this few times before, but I just cannot help it.

It's truly strange how analysts and economists keep making predictions about "stable growth", while we've been in constant state of central bank induced bailouts for over two years.

Why the complacency? 1/
The first two bailouts are not generally acknowledged, but they were important.

In November 2017, the BoJ and PBoC stopped the rout in the junk bond ETF:s that threatened to spread to the asset markets.

This went mostly unnoticed, like the following bailout. 2/
@GeoffCutmore
In March 2018, the #ECB was forced to bailout European corporate debt markets that became clogged due to over-issuance, as corporations were preparing for the end of QE and rise in interest rates.

The BoJ also participated by increasing its stock ETF purchases. 3/
@oliviabvoz
Read 10 tweets
The #ECB's new boss @Lagarde has taken fellow policy-makers on a private retreat to heal the rift left by her predecessor, sources tell @Reuters
@Lagarde @Reuters As I tweet, governors are discussing the inner workings of the #ECB at a secret location outside the central bank's premises/2
@Lagarde @Reuters @Lagarde's symbolic gesture comes at a time of divisions at #ECB, where a third of governors, including those from Germany, France and the Netherlands, are unhappy about restarting a.26 trillion euro money-printing programme
Read 4 tweets

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