Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ECB

Most recents (20)

DELAYED RECAP monthly MT GLOBAL M.PMI surveys Apr2019 thread 1/n (probably 30) (as of May2nd)

• Global Biz confidence remained at 2.5Y lows
• DM notch higher
• EM barely > 50
• F5 6M low

= global slowdown continues
= global centralbanks dovish
= disinflationary
2/n Global M.PMI heatmap

• Canada joined <50 club, 38M low
• Germany still 44+
• Austria joined <50 club, 4Y low
• Switzerland joined <50 club, 4Y low
• Czech 76M low
• Sweden 32M low
• Singapore 29M low
• China hovers at 50

...
3/n Global M.PMI in relevance to GDP distribution

• I'd be more stock bullish if those "bubbles" shift to the right quads
• turning into left quads is actually bond bullish
Read 22 tweets
For almost two years now, I've been randomly but constantly been drawn into discussions about the benefits of the euro.

The simple fact is that at the macro level, there are basically none. In the firm-level, especially in the SME -level, there are few. But, 1/
The question is, which should weigh more? The larger single-currency financial markets or a floating exchange rate that corresponds to the macroeconomic and political conditions of each country.

I think that answer, undeniably, is that the latter is more important. 2/
This is because global financial markets are very open and developed nowadays. Funding and hedging is widely available.

However, cutting wages and prices in a #recession has proven very difficult as it has been since the end of the 'liberal era' in early 1900's. 3/
Read 6 tweets
1. Politicians are lying to you: For almost 10 years we had near zero percent #interest, #ECB & #FED printed billions of $ & € creating huge asset #bubbles in #stocks & #properties. On top thousands of foreigners bought "cheap" properties in GER.

#Habeck #Enteignungen
2. On top many cities, especially #Munich, allowed only few new properties to be build - For 3 new families that reached Munich only 1 new home was build!
This scarcity is by design, since it inflates the value of existing #properties, enriching the "haves".
#Habeck #Enteignungen
3. The next money printing scam are all the regulations that hit home-builders in the last plus 10 years: "Dämmung","energetische Sanierung" (to prevent loss of heat/energy) and more is expensive & thus reduces the numbers that can afford a home & increases #rents.
#Enteignungen
Read 11 tweets
the @Europarl_EN is about to pass a new macro-finance initiative that threatens fiscal policy space for Euro Member States - 'far from being a stabilizing mechanism for the euro, SBBS would become yet another instrument of fiscal discipline'.
SBBSies wont do much good when a euro country comes under pressure in sovereign bond markets, but it can do significant damage #safeasset
no matter how many speeches and op-eds we get from European leaders calling for a Europe that can oppose US and China, we wont get one unless we can create a single safe asset. If only the new #ECB governor would fight for this #Benoit2019
Read 3 tweets
ok a serious one on the #ECB decisions today 3d

1) TLTRO is a yawner. TLTRO is secured funding, so I never thought that not doing TLTRO would be an issue as banks reposess collateral and can eventually refinance it elsewhere.
1cont) On the pricing mechanism of TLTRO III the “incentives” are not yet out so I cant judge if it will be lower or higher than -0.4%

2) Forward guidance and rates: here is the main message. Ecb has lowered 2021 Cpi to 1.6% far from the “2% or slightly below 2%” target
2cont) BUT has moved the first rate rise timing only by one quarter to Dec ’19 for Sept ’19.

3) MY TAKE IS THAT THE ECB HAS GIVEN UP ON INFLATION TARGET. FROM WHATEVER IT TAKES TO WHATEVER.

4) that explains the bond rally and equity giving up

Regards
Read 6 tweets
MT GLOBAL M.PMI monthly recap Feb2019 surveys thread 1/n

• MT Global M PMI 51.3 29M L
• JPM Global M PMI 50.6 32M L
• Breadth chart
2/n Global M PMI world view

• Global 51.3 29M L
• DM 51.7 30M L
• EM 50.5 3M H
• F5 52.0 12M H
3/n Global M PMI "big 4"

• US 53.0 18M L
• EA 49.3 ! 68M L
• CHINA 49.9 3M H
• JAPAN 48.9 32M L

#GlobalSlowDown
#GlobalDovishCBs
Read 20 tweets
🇺🇸 #SPX (1) | Equities ⬆ significantly since Dec. lows with participants not taking into account:
1/ the global synchronised slowdown that should be associated with a global trade contraction (YoY) soon
2/ the likely earnings recession in U.S. (and 🇪🇺)
🇺🇸 #SPX (2) | The move can be partly explained by the dovish switch in CBs:
1/ #Fed makes a pause in ⬆ rates and should should stop ⬇ its BS by year-end
2/ #ECB is likely to delay its 1st rate ⬆ and will launch new TLTROs
3/ #BOJ is considering 4 options for extra easing
🇺🇸 #SPX (3) | This easing charge has significant repercussions on asset prices leading to a sharp ⬆ of bonds trading with negative yields (up 60% since Oct. according to a Bloomberg/Barclays index)

#TINA can also explain why investors have rushed into other risky assets
Read 10 tweets
This is a great, thought-provoking speech by #Draghi, on European sovereignty. Though I disagree with some parts, the final part on “rules vs. institutions” is excellent. A thread. ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…
Draghi starts out with the alleged conflict between EU membership and #sovereignty, which is crucial to understand the populism of #Brexit, Le Pen et al. He says: no conflict at all, to the contrary.
“True #sovereignty is reflected not in the power of making laws – as a legal definition would have it – but in the ability to control #outcomes … The ability to make independent decisions does not guarantee countries such control,” says Draghi.
Read 17 tweets
GLOBAL MONTHLY UPDATE thread 1/n

Global M.PMI vs Y/Y in relation to world GDP contribution.

dramatic shift towards lower left quad. Expect PBoC stimuli, and why did ECB stop QE ?

#OGMT
2/n Global M.PMI Y/Y heatmap

2011/2012 comes in mind...

#OGMT
3/n Global Macro Snapshot
Read 27 tweets
EU MACRO ESI EA 1/n

Eurozone

• ESI 106.2 26M low
• Manuf 26M low
• Services 28M low
• Retail 47M low

#OGMT #OOTT #ECB $EUR
EU MACRO ESI DE 2/n

Germany

• ESI 108.5 22M low
• Manuf 24M low
• Services 7M low
• Consumer 6M low
• Retail 47M low
• Constr 4M low

#OGMT #OOTT #ECB $EUR $DAX
EU MACRO ESI FR 3/n

France

• ESI 101.01 2M high
• Manuf 26M low
• Services 4M high
• Consumer 3M high
• Retail 27M low
• Constr 3M low

#OGMT #OOTT #ECB $EUR $CAC
Read 12 tweets
#Equities #SP500 was rallying and the bulls are cheering. The excuse seems to be, that Powell has blinked. Remember 2007-09? Fed started lowering rates by September 07. Yet that did not prevent Financial markets to decline hard until March 2009 #HZupdates
The thing is, that when liquidity #crunch snowball gets rolling, some announcement from #Fed will not do the job. Down the line, Fed will need to scramble (QE or the like) to fight USD shortage. My LT #SP500 model remains like this. Major Bear market ABC-structure. #HZupdates
I will not reveal my EW-count for #SP500 here. That is reserved for subscribers and buyers of Weekly Update. Only say, that we have not seen an impulse wave since Sept high. I expect a MAJOR decline to set in rather soon, taking us to my bottom of wave A from LT-chart. #HZupdates
Read 17 tweets
...capito perché non se ne uscirà mai..?!?!
Dollar Shortage #FED
...le due chart "chiave"
Seguire #Fed fund rate futures e Eurodollar Futures oltre al libor è l'unica cosa che conta davvero e che impatta l'economia globale e la natura dei mercato aldilà degli algos telecomandati...
Libor up by 0.35 bps
Libor at 2.61813%
SPOT LOIS at 28.513
Read 135 tweets
Good morning from #Copenhagen, #Denmark 😀Another exciting week in the market. Hope you are up for some #HZupdates. We are imo getting closer to an inflection point where things will start to develop fast. Stay tuned! 👍
😀 I would like to see how many #FinTwit users read my #HZupdates on a weekly basis. Will you please answer by a simply "yes" or "no" to the question: I read #HZupdates every weekend. Thanks! 👍
#SP500 I think we pot. have a full count for US #equities. I see a test of the lower trendline (yellow mark) as a given. How successful that test turns out will give us a lot of info. #HZupdates
Read 11 tweets
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
*NBS spokesman Mao Shengyong said that the international situation was bringing “downward pressure” on China.
*Link: bloom.bg/2RVX1ZA
🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 French tire maker Michelin warned of declining sales in Europe and #China in the second half of the year, dragging down shares of its competitors in the U.S. and Europe - Bloomberg
*Statement: bit.ly/2EujhqH
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇪🇺 In a volley of filings, the EU, #China and the U.S. this week escalated disputes over new U.S. metals tariffs, the European response to those levies, and Chinese intellectual property practices - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 634 tweets
Tria non potrebbe mai lavorare con @POTUS 😂😂😂
#TriaExit #Mef cosa?
Sta diventando stucchevole..tanto 1,6/2/2,5 la sostanza non cambia...se arriva la contrazione economica seria come preambolo di recessione...vi travolge ...senza se e senza ma...
PUPAZZI 👺💩👏

#ITALY'S LEAGUE ECONOMICS ADVISOR SAYS ANY TALK OF THE COUNTRY'S EURO EXIT IS OUT OF DISCUSSION
Read 347 tweets
@donnagiuliaeste @PolitikoReal @lemasabachthani @BuffagniRoberto @antoniodebonis @gimmisantucci Persa occasione storica, vai subito di "piano B", senza esporti per nulla in stile "vorrei ma non posso", vai di moneta parallela con mini-bot e ccf, dai una spallata al sistema euro facendolo implodere, usi liquidità MEF per sostenere banche (Repo) e NON MFIs (Loans),usi CDP..
@donnagiuliaeste @PolitikoReal @lemasabachthani @BuffagniRoberto @antoniodebonis @gimmisantucci ..e la raccolta di risparmio postale che invece di farci campare lo "spoil system" manageriale parassitario lo metti a garanzia di investimenti e nazionalizzazioni, gli fai emettere nuovi bond, fai tabula rasa in MPS,Autostrade,Alitalia.Riporti UCG ed il risparmio italiano a casa
@donnagiuliaeste @PolitikoReal @lemasabachthani @BuffagniRoberto @antoniodebonis @gimmisantucci Prendi il controllo di Bankitalia dove metti i tuoi uomini così come avresti dovuto fare al MEF ed a CDP..incominci a negoziare su #Target2 mettendo sul tavolo i BTP non marketable comprati da #ECB con il QE e dentro il portafoglio Bankit...arrivati qui ti imploravano di fermarti
Read 4 tweets
riprendiamo questo discorso...
la "comica" corsa delle HFT firms ad avvicinarsi quanto più possibile ai server del CME (futures exchange)...
datacenterknowledge.com/cyrusone/cyrus…
...se parlate di mercati, cari i miei governanti, almeno cercate di conoscerne la struttura...ancora con il "floor"
6 maggio del 2010...la Grecia è al centro dell'attenzione mediatica mondiale e da li a poco la #ECB inizierà a comprare debito greco via SMP... ma quel giorno verrà ricordato come la massima espressione dei "fake markets" moderni, dominati dagli algos HFT
cnbc.com/video/30003772…
Read 120 tweets
Arbitraggio di "latenza" e frammentazione della struttura del mercato US sono i concetti (da approfondire) su cui si basa la manipolazione del mercato americano, grazie al ruolo svolto da #HFT e Quants
per iniziare un video che rappresenta un "must"
#ES_F
Ogni rettangolo colorato nel video è un exchange,ce ne sono 13 che tradano equities US ma controllati da 3 gruppi,Nasdaq/Nyse/Cboe quest'ultimo domina su opzioni e futures con CME. Ma ogni giorno il 40% del volume di scambi avviene nell'oscurità delle dark pool (oggi 2,15 mld $!)
Qui incominciamo a vedere i vari livelli che intercorrono prima di arrivare ad un "buy" per un "comune mortale"...
Read 51 tweets
Moavero sul Fiscal Compact : <io penso che sia uno strumento neutrale😳. Non direi sia un ostacolo alla crescita, serve a dare garanzie😆😂🤣 più solide ai conti pubblici di un paese, e la sua abolizione non🤣😂😆 porterebbe benefici>
mobile.ilsole24ore.com/solemobile/mai…
Read 37 tweets
In its desperate, unenlightened attempt to undermine & attack the Virtual Currency model (#BTC), the EU/ECB has created a legal timebomb! A/
In 2012, the ECB published a 55pp analysis of the Virtual Currency space, in which in characterized #BTC as unregulated digital "MONEY" B/
@maxkeiser In 2015, the ECB backpedals furiously, attempting to walk-back the definition of Virtual Currencies such as #BTC. A doomed effort... C/
Read 22 tweets

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