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We've seen a déluge of papers, opinion pieces and op-ed calling for a bold European response. Can the Eurogroup act fast enough?
It's not entirely clear what can be done under Article 122 but I'm pretty sure ESM *loans* won't be enough, even with no conditionality.
Hard to keep track - only a few recent contributions here:
- a Pandemic Solidarity Instrument by @lucasguttenberg, @COdendahl, @GrundSebastian: bit.ly/2V4YQG1
- blogs by @Bruegel_org: bit.ly/2RemKxO
- table from @JAndritzky: (1/2)
- a joint debt reduction fund by @FerdiGiugliano: bloom.bg/2JJJWzO
- legal basis for coronabonds @Verfassungsblog: bit.ly/2JKvtDQ
- thread by @tomashirstecon:
- and more by @gregclaeys, @Shahinvallee and others
(2/2)
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Frederik Ducrozet
@fwred
ECB: how to spend it.
A (long) thread on the implementation of ECB's asset purchases in 2020. Spoiler: maximum flexibility, virtually no limits. (1/n)
First, some important caveats. The PEPP is very different from other asset purchases: the Executive Board alone is in charge, with "the power to set the appropriate pace and composition" monthly purchases, and previous limits won't apply. A game-changer. (2/n)
This means that PEPP may be reported separately and differently. Today we’ll get the monthly report for March, including 4 trading days for PEPP. We'll see how much granularity we get, but it should confirm that the ECB has been front-loading its interventions massively. (3/n)
Read 16 tweets
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Frederik Ducrozet
@fwred
I think I have read every single speech by Benoît Coeuré during his eight years at the ECB.
Here's my (very personal) Top 10.
#hommage
#10
"Central banks and the challenges of the zero lower bound" (Feb-12).
One of the first to deal with this topic, to be followed by many more on negative rates. Same applies to QE.
ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…
#9
"Greece: progress, challenges and the way forward" (May-17).
Greece has always been a special topic close to Benoît's heart and decisions, as this week's colloquium made clear.
ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…
Read 11 tweets
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Frederik Ducrozet
@fwred
The new limits of ECB policies – our latest, looking to the future on this special day. (1/n)
perspectives.group.pictet/sites/perspect…
It’s a silly question that we are asking. There are no limits, within the mandate of course. Problem is: (1) the side-effects of existing measures are increasing, and (2) the political appetite for policy innovation is shrinking. (2/n)
The elephant in the room is open-ended QE. Assuming a slow recovery in core inflation, we expect ECB QE to continue for two years, and issuer limits to be raised by the end of 2020 to free up enough buying space. (3/n)
Read 10 tweets

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