The government isn't keen to discuss #covid19 exit strategies. But when it does move it will need to take people with it.
So the debate needs to start now. A thread on the very difficult options from our @InstituteGC briefing 1/9
institute.global/policy/suppres…
So the debate needs to start now. A thread on the very difficult options from our @InstituteGC briefing 1/9
institute.global/policy/suppres…
1) Lockdown until a vaccine?
Very difficult to maintain lockdown once case numbers shrink, let alone for 12-18 months. The economy could shrink by a third - which would mean millions unemployed for months, and huge permanent damage to the economy.
Very difficult to maintain lockdown once case numbers shrink, let alone for 12-18 months. The economy could shrink by a third - which would mean millions unemployed for months, and huge permanent damage to the economy.
2) Ease off measures once case numbers fall?
What we seem to have learned in recent weeks is that, without other tools, nothing except full lockdown works to prevent another jump in cases, as this scary chart from Imperial implies.
What we seem to have learned in recent weeks is that, without other tools, nothing except full lockdown works to prevent another jump in cases, as this scary chart from Imperial implies.
3) 'Adaptive triggering' - switching measures on and off when cases rise/fall?
This is essentially the default in any case. But it's little use. Imperial estimates lockdown would be needed 2/3 of the time. The health cost would be large and economic benefits minimal
This is essentially the default in any case. But it's little use. Imperial estimates lockdown would be needed 2/3 of the time. The health cost would be large and economic benefits minimal
4) 'Immunity permits' for people who've had the virus?
If only 10% of the population have had CV19, it's hard to see a policy of keeping the other 90% in lockdown as fair or possible. Economic benefits minimal.
If only 10% of the population have had CV19, it's hard to see a policy of keeping the other 90% in lockdown as fair or possible. Economic benefits minimal.
5) Weekly testing?
Some have proposed a weekly testing regime for the entire country. This could work. But it's a huge logistical challenge. Viable within 6 months?
Some have proposed a weekly testing regime for the entire country. This could work. But it's a huge logistical challenge. Viable within 6 months?
6) Contact tracing and mass testing?
App-based contact tracing combined with large-scale testing seems like the most plausible option that could be available within weeks. Singapore's TraceTogether app is anonymous and doesn't track location, but instantly alerts people at risk
App-based contact tracing combined with large-scale testing seems like the most plausible option that could be available within weeks. Singapore's TraceTogether app is anonymous and doesn't track location, but instantly alerts people at risk
For it to work we'd need high app coverage - the large majority of people - and easily-accessible testing. Currently Singapore's app appears only to have 20% take-up. Getting higher coverage shouldn't be hard if it's the only way out of lockdown
So 6 seems like best hope for exiting lockdown by summer. Combined with regional variation and continued strict rules for the most at-risk groups, it might just be enough to get R below 1.
We need a solution and we need it fast if we're to avoid huge long-term welfare damage
We need a solution and we need it fast if we're to avoid huge long-term welfare damage
