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Ian Mulheirn
@ianmulheirn
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
🚨New housing stats - woo hoo!🚨 LFS data combined with @MHCLG EPC data suggests the surplus housing stock grew strongly again last year to 1.24 million dwellings. Up from 660k in 1996. On latest data it'll probably rise again in 2019-20...
LFS suggests +131k households in England this year than last, but single years are bumpy. Average of +178k over past 5 years.

So for comparison:
@ONS's revised household projections of 160-170k ✅
Last year's supply of ~240k ✅
Government's housing supply target of 300k ❌🚕
But you all know it's not about volumes, right? No, we need to look at prices!

Rents are the key - as @BoE_Research explained brilliantly last week. Also echoed my conclusion that the role of supply in price growth has been 'negligible' bankunderground.co.uk/2019/09/06/hou…
For the 3 minute explanation of why high house prices and low home ownership have little to do with supply - and why it's time for a major policy rethink - take a look 👇
And if you've not yet read the paper, don't worry, there's still time to put that right...
housingevidence.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
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More from @ianmulheirn see all

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Ian Mulheirn
@ianmulheirn
One response to my housing paper in recent days has been 'nobody agrees with you so you must be wrong!'
housingevidence.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…

But in fact similar opinions have been shared by many economists recently on 3 core points:

1/12
1) There isn't a growing shortage that can explain national prices rises

2) Falling interest rates inevitably push up prices and are the primary culprit

3) Building 300k won't help reduces prices much or soon

2/12
First of all the government's own @mhclg model confirms that growth in the housing stock per head has been sufficient to put *downward* pressure on prices since 1991 medium.com/@ian.mulheirn/…
3/12
Read 12 tweets
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Ian Mulheirn
@ianmulheirn
My paper for @housingevidence is out today, on why even 300,000 houses per year offers no solution to the #HousingCrisis

Read the summary here @InstituteGC institute.global/insight/renewi…

A thread on supply and prices - more to follow later on home ownership and affordability.
2. Policymakers are in almost unanimous agreement on what's behind the housing crisis: as @mhclg said in 2017 "the cause is very simple: for too long we haven't build enough homes." But this doesn't fit the evidence.
3. Supply has in fact been sufficient to put downward pressure on house prices, but that effect has been outweighed by much larger forces pushing in the opposite direction. Here's why...
Read 11 tweets

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Reveal
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You do not want to be an "expert" who publicly dismissed BTS's uniqueness & championed K-p0p as The Next Big Thing.+
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