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@Gilesyb I am probably more with @rcolvile than @jdportes in pessimism stakes. The capital/knowhow will still be there but the frictions in rebuilding atrophied firms and supply chains could be tough.

Completely agree with the Vox points - that argument has to be won or we’re stuffed
@Gilesyb @rcolvile @jdportes Did you see the figures for guaranteed loan take-up? 😱😱😱
@Gilesyb @rcolvile @jdportes 3 stylised scenarios:
1. Companies come out weighed down by debt, balance sheet depression
2. Government shoulders all debts, side-stepping moral hazard, pays it off with tax
3. No loan take up and mass liquidation. No debt burden ex post but also no capacity in short run...
@Gilesyb @rcolvile @jdportes 2 is the best obvs.

But which is worse out of 1 and 3?
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Ian Mulheirn
@ianmulheirn
The government isn't keen to discuss #covid19 exit strategies. But when it does move it will need to take people with it.

So the debate needs to start now. A thread on the very difficult options from our @InstituteGC briefing 1/9

institute.global/policy/suppres…
1) Lockdown until a vaccine?

Very difficult to maintain lockdown once case numbers shrink, let alone for 12-18 months. The economy could shrink by a third - which would mean millions unemployed for months, and huge permanent damage to the economy.
2) Ease off measures once case numbers fall?

What we seem to have learned in recent weeks is that, without other tools, nothing except full lockdown works to prevent another jump in cases, as this scary chart from Imperial implies.
Read 9 tweets
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Ian Mulheirn
@ianmulheirn
Our new report, Populism in Power is out today, tracking its evolution globally since 1990. There have been some fascinating developments...
First thing to note is the rapid rise of populists was from about 2002-2012 - since then things have largely stabilised
But the mix has changed, with cultural populism now the dominant strain, and anti-establishment populism no more prevalent than it was 30 years ago
Read 6 tweets
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Ian Mulheirn
@ianmulheirn
🚨New housing stats - woo hoo!🚨 LFS data combined with @MHCLG EPC data suggests the surplus housing stock grew strongly again last year to 1.24 million dwellings. Up from 660k in 1996. On latest data it'll probably rise again in 2019-20...
LFS suggests +131k households in England this year than last, but single years are bumpy. Average of +178k over past 5 years.

So for comparison:
@ONS's revised household projections of 160-170k ✅
Last year's supply of ~240k ✅
Government's housing supply target of 300k ❌🚕
But you all know it's not about volumes, right? No, we need to look at prices!

Rents are the key - as @BoE_Research explained brilliantly last week. Also echoed my conclusion that the role of supply in price growth has been 'negligible' bankunderground.co.uk/2019/09/06/hou…
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