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Jenn Dowd Profile picture
@drjenndowd
Apr 7, 2020 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
From @FCBillari & colleagues "The comparatively higher prevalence of intergenerational contacts in Southern Europe shows a higher vulnerability to epidemics that disproportionately affect older adults." 1/2
"This vulnerability is magnified for Italy, given its higher level of population aging and also higher number of social contacts for the elderly population." contexts.org/blog/structura… @OxfordDemSci @PopulationEU #poptwitter
Does anyone with more context have thoughts on why Greece has been relatively spared relative to Italy and Spain?

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More from @drjenndowd

Jenn Dowd Profile picture
Mar 20, 2021
@MariaGlymour @jimiadams Great question. We get lots of questions @DearPandemic that are VERY specific about somone's situation, so our challenge has been to convey that risk is a continuum & help people take more general principles & apply their own judgment. @lindsleininger has been great on this...
@MariaGlymour @jimiadams @DearPandemic @lindsleininger "Risk is not an on or off switch. It's more like a dimmer, it's like a dial. If your risk budget is such that you want to spend all those chips on hugging somebody as safely as you possibly can, I think that, you know, the risk reward benefit might be worth it for you...
@MariaGlymour @jimiadams @DearPandemic @lindsleininger ..."depending on the context. When I think about my own risk budget, there's three components of it: There's personal risk, how at risk of a bad outcome I am; There's interpersonal risk, so my loved ones, what's their risk level; And then there's community risk."
Read 7 tweets
Jenn Dowd Profile picture
Feb 20, 2021
1/ My take on why COVID-19 cases are falling. As the wise @mtosterholm has said repeatedly, we need more humility in thinking we can easily explain the epidemic's every move. slate.com/technology/202… @FutureTenseNow @Slate @DearPandemic @OxfordDemSci
2/ Remember this? Modeling humans & viruses is...hard. vox.com/future-perfect…
3/ There are several plausible hypotheses for current drops in case numbers: 1) vaccinations 2) less testing 3) behavior/policy change 4) seasonality 5) herd immunity 6) "known unknowns."
Read 16 tweets
Jenn Dowd Profile picture
Sep 24, 2020
1/ In this opinion for @guardian, I discuss exponential growth, natural herd immunity, and how to prioritize mitigation strategies going forward. A thread: theguardian.com/commentisfree/… @trishgreenhalgh @melindacmills @OxfordDemSci
2/ To borrow from fellow @DearPandemic Nerdy Girl @lindseyleninger, “Exponential growth sucks.” I used a different word in print but it seems a propos for twitter. This sharp upward trajectory means cases (and then hospitalizations & deaths) can quickly get out of hand.
3/ On the + side, cutting off growth sooner pays big dividends in avoided cases. Since we only measured the tip of the iceberg of cases last Spring, we are likely in a much better place despite the large # of confirmed cases. This means we still have a chance to intervene early.
Read 18 tweets
Jenn Dowd Profile picture
Sep 11, 2020
1/ Did the Sturgis bike rally cause 266,796 new cases of COVID-19? Probably not. Lesson- Beware viral studies that confirm your pre-existing beliefs so satisfyingly. (Long) thread: slate.com/technology/202… @FutureTenseNow @EricTopol @slate @govkristinoem @DearPandemic #Sturgis
2/ Like most people working on COVID-19, I am of the strong belief that mass gatherings during a pandemic are a bad idea. When this paper came out, the huge figures immediately hit the "I Told you So!" button in my & many people’s brains. iza.org/publications/d…
3/ The first red flag is the huge number itself-it doesn't pass the sniff test.
Read 27 tweets
Jenn Dowd Profile picture
Jul 16, 2020
1/ 👇What is the real #COVID19 death toll in England & Wales? In our new study led by @jm_aburto & @ridhikash07, we estimate 53,937 excess deaths in the first half of 2020, roughly 33% higher than officially reported COVID-19 deaths. bit.ly/30koOrx Image
2/ Excess deaths vary by age & sex, with males comprising 54% of excess deaths in despite being a smaller proportion of the population at the oldest ages (so males have a higher risk of dying at all ages).
3/ The largest numbers of lives lost were among the 75-85 & 85+ groups, reflecting mortality 29.1% & 36.8% above expected levels. 15-44 year olds accounted for only 290 excess deaths, 6.1% above the expected level. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jenn Dowd Profile picture
Jul 1, 2020
Really interesting study showing T-cell response to SARS-CoV-2 in some blood donors & exposed family members even in the absence of antibodies. I'm a bit concerned about the press release/media take that this means seroprevalence is significantly underestimated 1/
.@marcus_buggert, am I reading this figure right: 9/31 vs 4/31 blood donors had T cell but not antibody responses, & 26/28 vs 17/28 for exposed family members? How does this match claim that almost 2X as many exposed family members & donors generated T Cells but not antibodies? Image
I think this is great work & I would LOVE for immunity to be higher than current estimates. I worry about the science communication though, & think not surprisingly the headlines seem overstated: bbc.co.uk/news/health-53… 3/
Read 6 tweets

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