1) It seems daily cases are on the decline. But are the numbers correct? Many have questioned low cases due to low number of tests. But our tests per capita are decent and increasing. No proper information on testing non Lebanese residents (>2 million, refugees, foreign workers)
2) Even if total number of cases not accurate, the declining trend is there. And supposing true cases are 10x more, we would be a surge in critical cases requiring hospitalization. So ICU and emergency admissions are a good indicator that spread is contained
3) So how come we did well so far? First due to initial markers: Lebanon has low connectivity, no massive public transport; and sectarian tensions meaning low interactions among communities; and drop in visitors due to instability
4) We also have a very good public health sector, despite everything. The work at the @mophleb spanned decades, especially under very competent public servants (not the various political ministers, but the core staff, who worked with low resources to build a very decent service)
5) A critical turning point is that Lebanon panicked early and closed down schools and universities, and followed by early decisions for lockdown. This is probably one of the few successes of this government (but they managed the economic repercussions miserably)
6) Let’s see now if this will keep on holding, & that we will have a good transition into post-#Covid_19 period. Many issues remain to be resolved, but the strength & patience (and cynisim) of the Lebanese people is admirable.
And of course the revolution is bound to continue :)
And of course the revolution is bound to continue :)
@threadreaderapp unroll
