Thread by @TomBollyky

Blaming the @WHO for a 'faulty' recommendation on travel bans on #COVID19 that White House ignored is odd.

It also does not correspond with the evidence Thread 1/

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1247540701291638787

Travel bans neither stopped the spread of this novel #coronavirus nor prevented it from becoming a pandemic.

This is latest update our @ThinkGlobalHlth tracker of #COVID19 cases in countries with travel restrictions on China (red) & countries without such restrictions (blue) 2/

96 countries and territories imposed travel restrictions on China due to #COVID19. The median duration was 66 days. Most frequently seen duration has been 68 days 3/
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/tracki…

All countries and territories with travel bans and COVID-19 cases are indexed on figure, showing cumulative growth in reported #COVID19 cases since the day that each country imposed its first travel restriction 4/

Figure also shows all the countries with #COVID19 cases that did not impose restrictions on China. These countries are indexed to January 27, when an increasing number of countries began imposing travel restrictions 5/

Figure does not show countries without confirmed COVID-19 cases as of Apr. 6. This includes 12 countries without travel restrictions and 27 countries with travel restrictions. Most of these countries are small & w/limited testing 6/

This @ThinkGlobalhlth travel ban tracker shows when all travel restriction were implemented, their type, our sourcing & current @WHO guidelines on #COVID19 trade and travel bans 7/
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/travel…

Scenario analysis suggest the combination of travel restrictions within China and international travel restrictions against China may have delayed spread of #COVID19, BUT more in nations that used time to reduce community spread 8/ science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…

During 2014 Ebola outbreak,@WHO discouraged use of travel bans, in part, because of their potential to create “a false impression of control” --misperception that the ban was sufficient to stop the spread of disease 9/
who.int/news-room/deta…

That may have been what happened with the US and some other nations 10/

Adjusting for population size doesn't change the picture much, with countries with and without bans showing a high number of #COVID19 cases per million inhabitants

Note: this figure excludes countries w/fewer than 1 million inhabitants and less than 1000 reported cases 11/

If you have further questions on the analysis, there is a good chance it can be answered by reading the
@ThinkGlobalHlth post itself, which identifies sources, methodology used, and limitations 12/12 thinkglobalhealth.org/article/tracki…