Thread by @jburnmurdoch

NEW: Sat 11 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily deaths:
• US & UK still on a trend of more deaths every day
• We’re now highlighting success stories in dark blue: Australia, Norway, Austria locked down early => curves are gentle

Live charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now cumulative deaths:
• US death toll has become the highest worldwide, topping 20,000 📈
• UK curve still matching Italy’s, but death toll higher than at same stage
• Australia looks promising, but early days yet

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now daily new cases:
• Early signs that new infections in US *may* be peaking
• New cases falling in four countries that acted early and decisively: New Zealand 🇳🇿, Australia 🇦🇺, Norway 🇳🇴, Austria 🇦🇹

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Cases in cumulative form:
• US has passed 500k confirmed cases
• Turkey still battling one of the world’s most severe outbreaks
• Curves flattened early in Austria, Australia, Norway

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now subnational region daily deaths:
• Daily deaths still trending upwards in NY & London
• London’s curve still steeper than any region other than NY at this stage of its outbreak
• Signs that the curve in Paris may be flattening

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Subnational death tolls cumulatively:
• NY likely to have world’s highest subnational death toll within days, and still rising faster than any other region at this stage of its outbreak

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Small multiples of daily deaths in 85 subnational regions, grouped by country:
• Bavaria German epicentre
• 16 US states: NY, NJ, MI, MA steepest; PA, IL also concerning
• Sicily, Sardinia, Balearics all low curves: do islands fare better?

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Small multiples for daily new deaths in 48 countries:
• Norway locked down while Sweden didn’t; Norway’s daily death toll rising much more slowly than Sweden’s
• Australia flat-ish so far...
• In Europe, Austria & Denmark faring well

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Small multiples for daily cases in 68 countries:
• Early action in Australia & NZ; they may have turned corner early 📉
• Austria & Norway also acted early & new cases falling
• I’m skeptical of the South African data

Live versions of all charts here: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Things to note:
• Daily covid data is extremely noisy and implies false precision
• This is why we use a rolling average. Watch for general trends. Focus on slopes, not specific daily numbers
• Read Tuesday’s thread for more on this

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1247666977566490626

We’ve also changed our data sourcing recently.

I’m no longer happy using Worldometers, so now sourcing all data directly from official country sources (health ministries etc).

This takes longer, but given my concerns over data quality on covid, I think this is important.

Here’s a video where I explain why we’re using log scales, showing absolute numbers instead of per capita, and much more:

https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1244519429825802240

And a chart showing why we're using absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244380095164420101

Please email [e-mail] with feedback, requests & subnational data.

All of these are invaluable, and we incorporate your suggestions and data every day.

We’ll keep getting back to as many people as possible.

Happy Easter weekend, folks :-)