Some important data today from @CMO_England and @uksciencechief. Doubling time in intensive care (numbers in going into intensive care) has risen from every three days to every six days, says @CMO_England. But @uksciencechief says transmission in the community has fallen...
dramatically, and numbers infected should actually be reducing - which is very encouraging. More worrying however is that @uksciencechief says the daily rate of deaths is expected to rise for 14 days after the peak of intensive care occupancy, and we are not there yet...
Which implies (on my estimate) that with total deaths now around 8000, total deaths in UK may well be circa 30,000 before the summer. Which explains why @DominicRaab and his cabinet colleagues have decided to say absolutely nothing about the how, why and when of easing...
the lockdown till the end of next week.
