Norway has made a preliminary estimate of costs and benefits to go for long-term suppression vs transitioning towards a more Sweden-like approach.
Quick summary:
Short-term lock-down is better
Long-term Sweden-approach is better
helsedirektoratet.no/tema/beredskap…
Quick summary:
Short-term lock-down is better
Long-term Sweden-approach is better
helsedirektoratet.no/tema/beredskap…
This is a quick study, so clearly not last word. The long-term suppression is six months, and then re-opening. The breaking-scenario (towards Sweden) envisions an opening back, accepting a much higher death rate (12,400 dead vs 199 dead) but much smaller long-term hit to economy
The study also includes extra health care costs from more infection but not extra costs from closed schools, less learning, more social stress etc.
The total cost difference is apparently 660B NOK, or $64B over 10 years (from table 2-7 and 4-2) — about $12K/person
The total cost difference is apparently 660B NOK, or $64B over 10 years (from table 2-7 and 4-2) — about $12K/person
