Also a palliative care doc walked me through a day with a COVID patient day.
1 more Senate call. Soon.1/
And the different numbers cause people a variety of factions from “it’s working” to “see this is overblown” to “big numbers are alarmist.”3/
They also make assumptions about human behavior that can’t be known (as you will see). 4/
There is also a secret “Grand Princess” model I will touch on.5/
First question— if it comes out at 60 or 100-200, how could ppl have been so wrong? Or if it comes out higher, how could ppl be so wrong? 6/
If 1 person infects 2.3 people on average, after 10 cycles 4100 are infected. But if one person infects only 1.3 people on average, only 14 people are infected. 7/
It’s why people look foolish to 2nd guessers. When Cuomo said NY could need 30,000 hospital beds, he said “I hope they call me alarmist.”
NOBODY predicting higher number wants to be right.8/
-The first projection was on 1 city. Now it includes 16, including European cities. More data w sustained social distance.
-Assumes states that have not done social distancing don’t have outbreaks.
10/
-Assumes R0 goes to below 1. Meaning instead of 2.3 or 1.3, it is less than 1. That would crush the virus.
-Assumes we don’t let up social distancing. Critical assumption
-Assumes states don’t open until <10 cases 11/
-Assumes no international travel
-Assumes no bed overruns 11/
Before I get back to the convo, I will tell you some of the critiques I heard. 12/
-Model not dynamic. Just runs multiple cases
-Already proving wrong in NY
-Steady state assumption on length of #StayHome not viable. 13/
-Assumes a lot of testing is ready to go that isn’t
So those are the criticisms. And if the criticisms are right, then 60k will be higher.14/
-60% of people in Queens are compliant (that concerned me)
-33% in Montgomery, AL are compliant (that frightened me)
17/
Where was he 10 minutes ago?
Being 10% off could make you 1000% wrong. People might want to refrain from too much criticism.
Never mind, this is Twitter! Who am I kidding? 🤣 18/
Drop at any time, but I might as well get this out tonight. 19/
1- Debt & spending
2- China
3- Regional recovery
20/
For reference GDP last year was about $20 trillion. Between what we will spend & how much GDP will drop, we will break that record. 21/
-More nationalism (not just from China, but from us)
-Less trade more in-country manufacturing
-Much tighter borders
-Continued tariffs
-Regional hegemony strategies
-Weakening if WHO, UN, global institutions 22/
West Coast handled this much better than East. Easier to contain, easier recovery. Southeast expected to be quite bad. 24/
What would your state’s motto be? @somuchweirdness says Minnesota’s would be “Just stay where you are. Why would we get closer than 6 feet?” (not a warm people) 27/
Talked to a hospice doc today (if I said nurse earlier, it was Zach’s fault). She is doing all her conversations via iPad. Talks to patients. Talks to families. Via iPad.
I asked her how to prevent ppl from feeling alone as they die wih no family there? 27/
Whatever the “number” is, it’s far too many and we can beat it. /realend