After the 2008/9 bailouts I almost abandoned the investment business because I have a toxic aversion to moral hazard. My brain broke when the banks were bailed out.
I sought counselling for a few months and eventually found writing as a way to express frustration and find catharsis. That’s when the GestaltU blog was born (now @InvestReSolve blog).
Luckily I also discovered Taleb and @PTetlock around that time. Their messages really resonated with me:
1. You can’t construct narratives to forecast the future
2. Ensembles of simple models can be useful
3. Manage risk and be prepared
1. You can’t construct narratives to forecast the future
2. Ensembles of simple models can be useful
3. Manage risk and be prepared
@bsamdavid introduced me to the concept of risk parity and different optimization methods. It wasn’t long before I stumbled onto Anti Ilmanen’s “Expected Returns”, which spawned a multi-year adventure in factor strategies.
In parallel I was blessed with the best business partners a guy could ask for in @MikePhilbrick99 and @RodGordilloP, and others along the way.
The thread through all this is that I realized in 2008/9 that Mist people (like me) can’t make good discretionary investment decisions through a fog of rage and other emotions. And Tetlock showed me why I shouldn’t try to navigate markets with discretion anyway.
That’s why we run systematic strategies. To the best of our ability, we employ a very large ensemble of simple proven models with a strong emphasis on risk management and diversification. Prudent decisions are made and executed dispassionately regardless of my state of mind.
I’m mad as hell again and I don’t think I could effectively cultivate the cognitive dissonance necessary to run discretionary money right now without filtering decisions through a prism of rage.
It’s at times like this that I am most proud of our systematic approach.
It’s at times like this that I am most proud of our systematic approach.
