#AFGPanel For much of past 18 months of US-led efforts to kickstart an Afghan peace process, a question --for some, a serious doubt-- has hung over rounds of talks: are the Taliban even cohesive enough to negotiate with?
Is talking to "Doha Taliban" the same as "Quetta Taliban"?
Is talking to "Doha Taliban" the same as "Quetta Taliban"?
#AFGPanel These aren't old questions; been around long before US envoy Khalilzad began directly speaking to Taliban in late 2018.
The idea that Taliban is full of divisions and factions, loosely networked, difficult to control, was a big realization for US/NATO over a decade ago.
The idea that Taliban is full of divisions and factions, loosely networked, difficult to control, was a big realization for US/NATO over a decade ago.
#AFGPanel But--as much as some say the Taliban's ideology has not changed... its organizational structure, its internal hierarchy, and how it manages territory as an insurgency has evolved, quite a lot and more than once!
usip.org/publications/2…
usip.org/publications/2…
#AFGPanel If we consider Taliban along w/ civil war movements, rebel groups & terrorist orgs around the world, we find that it has much more cohesion than most actors in this category. Even in its most fragmented phase (2015), group not only held together but seized Kunduz City!
#AFGPanel With the Taliban's constant evolution and proof of its resilience, we should dispense with narrative that it is fragmented. Orgs full of factions might never fragment.
**Most importantly, fragmented rebel groups are always bad for peace talks.
**Most importantly, fragmented rebel groups are always bad for peace talks.
#AFGPanel Taliban is a large organization spread across the most remote areas of a rural developing countryside. It is full of diverse, sometimes competing interests.
But the idea that the group can be pressured into splitting apart has been proven wrong, over almost 20 years.
But the idea that the group can be pressured into splitting apart has been proven wrong, over almost 20 years.
#AFGPanel Think back to the targeted killing of Taliban emir Mullah Mansour, which did nothing to end - or even slow down - the course of the war.
As long as peace talks are an option, trying to split up the Taliban shouldn't be policy. END/
As long as peace talks are an option, trying to split up the Taliban shouldn't be policy. END/
