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@covid19mc

@covid19mc

You asked - here are our updated predictions @covid19mc.
What's new? Better data on reported cases over longer period of time = ⬆️ precision.
First signs #PhysicalDistancing worked. If we keep going (+ ramp up other strategies), "Italy" scenario seems unlikely.
What's next?
1/6

Focus on #LTC, #shelters and other vulnerably populations. What emerged over the last couple days is beyond appalling. We can do so much better!
2/6

Start thinking about #Phase2 (in the context of #endgame options), e.g., with a tiny bit of room to breathe now, can we re-start other clinical services?
3/6

We need to figure out the % of ICU/hospital beds that can be allocated to COVID-19 patients in the long term. OK to aggressively stop clinical services (e.g., transplants, cardiac procedures, cancer care) in the short term, but this comes at a cost,⬆️morbidity and mortality.
4/6

Balancing the needs of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients will be key for the weeks and months ahead, critical for planning #Phase2 and informing #Endgame.
5/6

We are nowhere close to being ready to ease up on #PhysicalDistancing. We need to put other measures in place (e.g., widespread testing, tracing, isolation) to buffer the increase in COVID-19 cases, which will happen. Fine-tuning this will be challenging. #NoEasyWayOut.
6/6