Readers of this feed will remember me writing weeks ago about the likelihood of an "apex plateau" rather than an "apex." Talk (exclusively) of an "apex" continued, among media and officials, for weeks. Now here we are: it can't be ignored anymore. It's a plateau—and *horrifying*.
PS/ The basis of my writing about an "apex plateau" was the experience Italy has had—weeks and weeks of approximately 4,000 infections daily and approximately 600 deaths. Even as Italy's data *strongly* suggested a plateau—not a conventional apex—officials in the U.S. ignored it.
PS2/ Remember, too, that the highly conservative IHME model the White House is using—largely to justify not giving certain states what they're asking for—*assumes* a conventional apex, even as its authors say they're working significantly from data in Italy depicting a *plateau*.
PS3/ All I'm saying is what I've said before: if medical experts are going to present to the nation statistical conclusions that seem illogical and counter-factual based on public data, they simply must *explain such paradoxes* rather than assume it'll all make sense to everyone.
