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The California #COVID19 story is an unexplained, very positive one, w/ early physical distancing early offered as the 1° driver. The apex for hospitalizations hit today, for death expected Wednesday. Way below the @IHME_UW model predictions
graphics via @ms_gilchrist @sdut
CA's stay-at-home order was 3 days earlier than NY, 2 days before NJ, the 2 hardest hit states. Its #COVID19 testing was relatively low, behind many other states (all were delayed > 6 weeks, TY @CDCgov @US_FDA). Likely 1° story of exponential impact of time: distancing vs virus
Another point to note
Californians #COVID19 testing consistently < 10%, one indicator is @UofCAHealth (via @atulbutte)

Whereas NY positive testing was >3X, 35-40% throughout much of their outbreak
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
Serology testing from Wuhan indicates only 2-3% have antibody among 8,600 hospital workers and visitors, with much more testing in the works wsj.com/articles/wuhan…
by @JNBPage (where there were >50,000 confirmed cases)
Interesting to see so many responders who don't believe it. Well, information from Denmark, the Netherlands, and other countries, have not surpassed 4% seropositive level to date
TY @TroelsKrarup @redevries @carstensenpol
Any other country data, large cohort welcome to add
The Santa Clara County, California report for > 3,000 people: 1.5-2.8% seropositive, like the others above (each are using different assays) medrxiv.org/content/10.110… (preprint)
Read 3 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
The #COVID19 cover contest
Some of the best so far
@ScienceMagazine @CellCellPress @NatureMedicine @techreview
Let's do a poll 🤔
Appreciate the input about @NewYorker #COVID19 covers.
They are in a class of their own
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
An update on US fatality curves
new best-fit @BMcNoldy w/ increased doubling time
spikes in the @OurWorldInData and 91-divoc.com/pages/covid-vi… in part d/t change in NY counts
and what happens when you look at too many graphs, by @xkcd
The updated log graph @TheEconomist today is helpful (better Y-axis); it suggests we have not reached the apex yet, but that may be influenced by the change in NY counting
Beyond this updated graph, @TheEconomist's @J_CD_T @DanRosenheck and great graphic team are showing a new way to look at the problematic, changing, and missing death counting. Here's the NYC graph from today
economist.com/graphic-detail…
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