It's going to be hard to make sense of the Wisc. results, in part because I don't know how they're handling various vote methods by county, but *so far* basically everywhere that has more than 30 pct counted has been better for Dems than the nail-biter in '19. Still very early. 
For those who'd prefer a scatterplot, here counties with greater than 25 pct of 'precincts' counted. Again, hard to know whether there are any potential reporting biases as a result of tabulation process etc, and most of these results are from the southeastern part of the state
Signs that Dem-backed overperformance now extendsout of Milwaukee market to Oshkosh, MSP exurbs. If this were a normal election, and had no questions about the way this was being counted or weird turnouts, we'd say Kelly was the underdog at this point
As it is though, I don't know how the explosion of mail voting effects the count here, and we do know that this can create biases in the sequence of election returns
In the past, absentee ballots have sometimes been reported first or last, depending on county. And it seems there are at least some counties counting them together. You can get weird biases over time in the results, depending on method and difference btwn eday/abs
But at this point, the Dem overperformance is broad enough that it would definitely have to take some kind of weird reporting bias like this, where all the late results break one way, for Kelly to hold on. Obviously, reluctant to rule that out in these circumstances.
Here's another fun way to look at this. Basically everywhere with meaningful vote counts is better for Dems than '19
I haven't been updating because I'm no longer interested in the race. At this point, the only thing to watch is whether counties that say they're at '100% reporting' wind up dropping heavily GOP votes. My view is that the reported turnout is too high for that to be realistic.
Apparently people still want these even though, frankly, only two things can be true: the race is over, these plots are useless.
Even so:
Even so:
Just wait. It will work its way up to the line
