The core tension right now is that...
--Biden could lead among RVs in states worth 400 electoral votes, including 6+ points in the national popular vote
--Trump could still be within 2 points in states worth 270 electoral votes, and quite possibly even less among likely voters
--Biden could lead among RVs in states worth 400 electoral votes, including 6+ points in the national popular vote
--Trump could still be within 2 points in states worth 270 electoral votes, and quite possibly even less among likely voters
We are not used to both of these things being true. Frankly, it's hard to write about both of those things being true. But it is hard to reach a fundamentally different conclusion
All of this could change--even a lot. There's an endless number of caveats in this environment. But that's the best guess on where we stand
