Keeping a lockdown until there are enough tests for everyone is insane, @GovernorTomWolf. Also, IHME has cut by 80% its doomsday numbers that were going to happen despite lockdowns. This means that when you open, things will be 80% better than what IHME said a month ago.
.@GovMurphy IHME’s models of how things were going to look even with shutdowns was based on their reading of how bad the virus itself is. It’s not just assumptions of how well the mitigation will work. But those (lockdown) projections were way off to the dark side; off a mere
week of the given date and today they cut by 78% their own hospitalization projection from a mere 13 days ago! This (being wrong about the virus) means that opening will NOT bring anywhere close to the doom that IHME projected way back; which led to the shutdowns to begin with.
.@GovNedLamont What I am trying to say is we can’t operate with a thinking “IHME was so way off because lockdowns work much better than expected which means if we open, we are back to Square One.” No. The God Models wks into a lockdown SHOULD have a clue how well lockdowns work!
So what explains them being so wrong so close out? Well, it’s their view of the virus. They clearly have a darker view of it than what it is. Open up with normal measures in place. Current plans/time tables are nuts. cc @GovernorTomWolf @NYGovCuomo @GovMurphy @GovNedLamont
