THREAD All eyes will be on the ABS Labour Force release tomorrow. It will give the first indication of the unprecedented job losses from the #COVID19 shutdown. Some things I and my @CntrFutureWork colleagues will be watching for: ...2
The rise in the unemployment rate will give a very imperfect and incomplete picture of the true hit to the labour market. Many people who are not working, will not be considered officially 'unemployed.' ...3
That's because because they may be still attached to their employer (JobKeeper helps with that), or are not actively seeking alternative work (knowing there is none available), or are not 'ready & available' to work (waiting to see if their employer calls them back). ....4
The decline in employment will be more severe than the rise in unemployment. And the decline in hours actually worked will give the clearest picture of how much work was actually lost in the March survey period (March 8-22). ...5
Some forecasters predict unemployment might reach 10% tomorrow. That might not happen due to the above factors (reflected in lower participation and people 'employed' but not working). If unemployment does not reach 10%, that's not a sign that things are 'better than feared.'...6
Note that the full shutdown of non-essential services in most parts of Australia did not begin until *after* the ABS survey was completed. So these March numbers will give only a partial picture of the full impact; the April numbers will be much worse. ...7
We expect the worst employment losses will be experienced by:
* service industries (that's unusual for recessions, which typically start in the goods sector)
* women & youth (disproportionately working in hard-hit sectors)
* part-time & temporary/casual jobs (easy to cut). ...8
* service industries (that's unusual for recessions, which typically start in the goods sector)
* women & youth (disproportionately working in hard-hit sectors)
* part-time & temporary/casual jobs (easy to cut). ...8
The unequal effects of this recession will thus be starkly visible. This makes it all the more important that maximum supports be given to those workers hit hardest. Sadly the govt has needlessly excluded 2 million+ highly vulnerable workers (short-tenure casual & foreign visa).
