Profile picture
, 3 tweets, 1 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
I think the information environment has people thinking we’re maybe 50% “through” coronavirus and I think my estimate is on the order of 3 to 5%.
And there are many, many shoes that have not yet dropped.
You can predict a lot of the shoes, too. Read headlines from elsewhere; apply locally.

“$POLITICIAN hospitalized” a pretty salient one. You can imagine many, many more.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Patrick McKenzie

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @patio11 see all

Profile picture
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
Too many people of my acquaintance place a lot of stock in Hanlon's Razor, specifically because their immediate thought after running it is "... But nobody could be that stupid."

Evil is not a great model for explaining bad results much of the time. Stupidity has same problem.
McKenzie's Razor and Shaving Cream: Don't attribute to evil what you can explain by emergent behavior in complex system.

You should aggressively update your estimate on whether a system is bugged or not by inspecting whether the system delivers sensible outputs given its inputs.
This is instrumentally useful for technologists because you probably spend a lot of your time around very smart people and very bugged systems, and therefore you will not prematurely rush to conclude "Hmm that there black box has smart people operating it; probably flawless."
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
Last year, I felt it was suboptimal for tech platforms to outsource their governance issues, because giving permit/deny rights on a material portion of all human utterances to parties which rhyme with governance seemed unwise.

This year, it feels *extremely* suboptimal.
Thought partially inspired by the fact that, if you were to search Twitter for a particular blog post about a particular government's handling of a situation of pressing public concern, Twitter helpfully directs you to reliable information by the government agency in question.
"Pics or it didn't happen."

Pretty sure it happened; handily there's a way to demonstrate that without pics.

b3b7e835d16302c33b30684ca5b512f62a4db82c8e91632eb47bf2702dafdb76a5c321f4ca9d2b5f0da5d92a77a7712028f30302f41474a505fd571b301bbe45
Read 9 tweets
Profile picture
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
NHK confirms that coronavirus-appropriate hospital beds are 80%+ filled in Tokyo, Osaka, Ishikawa, Hyogo, Shiga, and Okinawa.

Experts threshold of concern for imminent impact on medical care is 30%, again per NHK.

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/c…
The 28 prefectures which are above that threshold will not fit in this tweet.
NHK reports that several prefectures which were unable to sustain the prior strategy of hospitalizing all diagnosed cases have begun moving less severely affected patients to hotels/etc or asking them to self-sequester at home, temporarily freeing up bed space.
Read 4 tweets

Embed code for your website

×
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!