It’s this kind of simple, level-headed, fact-based information that we desperately need. And not the diet of empty cheerleading platitudes we are constantly being served in the UK press briefings. Trust that people can interpret the data if it is presented to them in a clear way
Instead we get “Don’t do this, it’s bad. Do that, it’s good. Sciency-wiency, timey-wimey, we won’t trouble your pretty little heads with trivia like facts and explanations. Here, look at this shiny badge we’ve made.” 🤔
The way Merkel explains this is very simple but very important, so let me paraphrase it and expand on it here ...
If every person who has COVID-19 passes it on to less than 1 person on average, then the rate of infection will slow. We will see fewer new positive tests and deaths
If every person who has COVID-19 passes it on to less than 1 person on average, then the rate of infection will slow. We will see fewer new positive tests and deaths
People will still get infected and some will still die, but the reported daily numbers of new cases/deaths will fall. It won't reach zero until the transmission rate falls to 1:0
If on average each person with COVID-19 passes it on to exactly 1 other person, the rate of new cases and deaths will flatten. People will still get ill and die at the same rate, but the spread will be contained. Which means no additional strain on already strained healthcare
But if the rate increases from 1:1 to 1:1.1 - that's just a 10% increase - then the number of new cases and deaths will increase by around 10% too. So the pressure on healthcare, ITU beds etc will gradually increase to the point where we can't cope any more
What does that mean in real terms? It means that at some point we will either have to increase ITU bed, ventilator etc capacity - but we can't just ramp up the number of doctors & nurses to match. Which means that ...
... Doctors will need to make difficult decisions. If there are 2 COVID patients who need the last remaining bed, who gets it - and who is allowed to die? I don't want to be that patient, and I wouldn't want to be the doctor who has to make that literally a life-or-death decision
Now imagine the transmission rate is not an average of 1:1 or even 1:1.1 but 1.2 or 1.3 or even higher. Every increase means we will reach that critical point beyond which our health services can no longer cope a few weeks sooner. For Germany, 1:1.3 would mean it happens in June
I don't know what the comparable timeline is for the UK, but we are in a significantly worse place than Germany already in terms of number of deaths. So the maths isn't difficult. Small changes in the transmission rate could have a huge impact
The more people who ignore social distancing measures and good hygiene practices, the higher the transmission rate will be. The higher the rate, the longer we will remain under lockdown and the sooner the NHS will collapse under the strain
And when doctors are forced into life-and-death decisions, that person who draws the short straw could be me, you or someone you love. That's why it's important to really understand the numbers. Because behind each of those numbers is a real person. And it could be any of us
So don't think it doesn't matter if you ignore the rules because you're just one person. It does matter. A lot. Follow the guidelines. Stay at home as much as you can. Avoid unnecessary contact. And keep well
@threadreaderapp Unroll please
