THREAD: A few personal observations, facts and the occasional bit of expertise looking back at last night’s election result. I’ll try to keep this as unbiased as possible – but be warned, it will be long. Let’s go! #GE2019
In case you’ve been hiding under a rock, here’s the potted summary. Boris Johnson: thought to be in danger of losing his seat but held comfortably and now has a commanding overall majority. Nigel Farage: no seats, but still claiming credit for everything
Nicola Sturgeon: big gains for the SNP, setting up a push for a second independence referendum. Jo Swinson: lost her seat. Jeremy Corbyn: led Labour to their worst result since the dinosaurs, and his political future is just as extinct
In truth, the writing was on the wall the moment the exit poll predicted a Conservative majority of 86 at 10pm. Sure, some people with long memories clung to hopes of a repeat of 1992, when the exit poll was significantly wrong
But the methodology has greatly improved since then. In the last 3 elections, the poll had not been out by more than 15 seats. The moment it was published, the question shifted from “can the Tories win a majority?” to “how big will it be?”
There’s some interesting insights beneath the headlines though. At the time of writing (1 seat out of 650 still to declare), let’s take a look under the hood, shall we?
Firstly, turnout was 67.3% of registered voters, down 1.5% from 2017. Despite the importance of this election, fewer people voted in this third election in 4 years – a clear sign of an electorate for whom Brexit/political fatigue had set in
I’ve been saying since the outset how insidious ‘Get Brexit Done’ was a slogan. But it was also genius. By making a vague promise of an immediate resolution (which will not happen), it pandered to people’s desire to move on after 3.5 years of stalemate
Now look at overall share of vote. Yes, tactical voting in a small number of marginal constituencies skews this slightly. But the overall pattern still holds true. Labour lost 8% of their voter share compared to 2017. Ouch 
The Tories weren’t the biggest gainers (+1.2%) – but they did make an overall gain. The Lib Dems moved from 7% to nearly 12%, for all the good it did them – they are 1 seat down on 2017 and have lost their leader, Swinson
The Tories ran a better overall campaign than Labour. It was peppered with lies and clouded by Johnson avoiding all scrutiny, but the reality it is it worked. This sets a worrying precedent for future campaigns
And the Tories’ crushing victory was fuelled by *where* they made those gains. Many were in Labour seats which voted Leave in 2016. In Blyth Valley, which voted 60:40 Leave, they turned an 8k Labour majority into a 712-vote win
There were swings the other way, but not enough decisive ones. By and large the Tories weathered the storm. Johnson’s vote held up. Dominic Raab’s 23k majority from 2017 withered but he held on by 3k
Michael Gove held. Iain Duncan-Smith saw his 2.4k majority halved, but he remains too. Tactical voting had an impact, but it was neutered somewhat by resistant voters and third-place parties refusing to give way
A note: don’t underestimate the role of inertia in voting. On social media, I saw lots of people saying “I’ve always voted X, so I’ll vote X this time”. For everyone who said this publicly, there were hundreds of more who did the same. People are stubborn
Last night, I saw many people expressing surprise as the results unfolded. This didn’t represent what they were seeing on their social media feeds, or conversations they were having with friends and neighbours. Should we have been surprised? No
We saw something similar in the 2016 referendum, when the Leave win surprised many. Three points here. Firstly, social media tends to be slanted towards younger users, while Tory voters are skewed towards older users
Secondly, the anti-Tory sentiment has been so overwhelming and loud that many Tory voters simply kept quiet to avoid being ganged up on and bullied, or being lumped in with the more vocal far-right voices often found on Twitter or Facebook
Finally, the phenomenon of ‘echo chambers’. We tend to follow/interact with people with similar views, creating an unbalanced picture. Facebook’s algorithm amplifies this by pushing people we interact with most, typically those we agree with
I’ve written at length about the impact of social media in this election campaign and how the Tories have won this battle hands down. You can read my analysis here
Beyond social media, let me also add a bit more about the role of Google – and in particular paid ads
If you typed ‘tactical voting’ or ‘how should I vote’ into Google in the past week or so, you would have found a Conservative-sponsored link at the top of your results. How? Because they are paid-for ads
Most people will click on the first result in a Google search – very few look beyond the top 3 results. So imagine how powerful and influential it is to pay your way to the number 1 spot
As an undecided voter, you think you’re getting the ‘best’ recommendation – but you’re not always. The links are labelled as ‘ad’, but it’s not obvious. To the untrained eye, it just looks like an ordinary organic search result
The excellent @carolecadwalla published several examples showing exactly how this works yesterday …
@carolecadwalla Let’s return to the role of the mainstream media. Lots of complaints about bias from the right-wing press. This is a fair criticism, but equally it’s not new. Here’s a front page from the Express in the run-up to the 1945 general election …
Clement Attlee nonetheless defeated Winston Churchill, ushering in the Labour government that would go on to create the NHS.
So right-wing media bias is not new. But this election has taken manipulation of the media to a new level. Feeding influential journalists with deliberate misinformation (yes, you @bbclaurak and @peston)
‘Misremembered’ numbers. Deliberate, spurious distraction tactics (frequently untruths) to deflect from candidates’ gaffes and smear opponents. We’ve seen it all, haven’t we? Fridge-gate. Punch-gate. Kid-on-the-floor-gate
Use of sock puppets (covered in my earlier thread). 88% of Tory social media ads were shown to be misleading (versus 0% for Labour)
There is nothing accidental about this. It is systematic, unethical (in some cases illegal) … and unquestionably effective. Welcome to our post-truth world, people
Labour, while not 100% innocent, generally played by the rules. This is to their credit – but also, ultimately, their detriment. Sadly, we appear to not care about lies, misinformation and downright stupidity any more
Remember Sally-Ann Hart? She was the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye (Amber Rudd’s former seat) who surged to prominence when she claimed that people with disabilities should be paid less because they don’t understand money
Remember the resultant furore? Well, yesterday, Hart not only held on to the seat for the Tories – she did so with a slightly *increased* majority
In past campaigns, a scandal such as this would have scuppered a candidate. Today, lies and outrageous statements are so normalised – and we have become so desensitised to them – they barely cause a dent
Let’s talk about the middle ground now. A significant number of voters who sit between extreme left and right. In a few cases the Lib Dems provided a viable alternative – but in most seats it came down to a choice between red and blue
While both major parties shifted away from the central political ground – aided by the Tories/media (partly successfully) painting Corbyn as Son of Stalin – it’s my belief that the Tories were better at appealing to moderates
My political views are centre-left. Like many moderates, I felt disenfranchised in this campaign. But while the Tories heavily targeted us, Labour didn’t – and, I think, alienated many. Flip-flopping on Brexit. The anti-Semitism issue
Even the Queen’s Christmas message. All could have been killed with decisive messaging. Corbyn and Labour repeatedly stumbled and the Tories hammered them ruthlessly. Ultimately, Labour’s tell-it-as-it-is style drove away more people than it converted
They offered voters a bitter pill to swallow and told us to take it because it was good for us. The Tories coated it in saccharine – fake but so much more attractive – and enough undecided voters happily swallowed it
Is the election loss Corbyn’s fault? Partly. Like it or not, we live in a world of ‘personality politics’. Labour played an old-school PR game and were trounced by the Tories, who behaved abhorrently but managed their media campaign far better
The challenge for Labour going forward is to find a more compelling leader – Keir Starmer, perhaps? – who appeals to both the left and moderates, can solidify their gains from last night and reverse the temporary Brexit-fuelled swings to the Tories next time around
So, what now? Johnson has a large enough majority that he can essentially ignore the hard-line demands of the DUP and the ERG, and even backtrack on some of his promises. Is this bad? Not necessarily
We may see a softening of the hard Brexit stance he previously had to maintain to keep his allies onside. Will this lead to a slower, softer Brexit than what we were facing before? Maybe. Maybe not
We’re approaching the Brexit endgame but I don’t think the final shape of Brexit is set in stone by any means. Let’s see how it all plays out in the coming weeks and months
Crudely speaking, through his machinations Johnson won his mandate for Brexit with just 46% of the vote (adding the Tory share of vote to the Brexit party). A minority of the population. All without ever risking a second referendum
But a word of warning to those who believe Remain would have definitely won a second referendum. 54:46 based on the general election numbers is close enough to put in doubt the outcome of a theoretical referendum
Johnson absolutely did not want to risk it. A general election was his best chance to earn the mandate he desperately needed. But the figures are close enough to suggest that in a straight Leave vs Remain battle, he might still have won
What’s done is done. Like it or not, question the tactics and legality all we want, the public has had its say and made its decision. Today we are a deeply divided country of tribal winners and losers – it’s like the day after a heated football derby
Now we need to move forward and heal the wounds. We need our political leaders to soften their tone (I don’t have great hopes for this) but ultimately it’s up to *us*. We are supposed to be the *United* Kingdom. It’s about time we started acting like it ~END~
