Thread by @balajis

The age of global pseudonymous scientific publication has begun.

This is a well-sourced article making the case for laboratory escape & contrasting to zoonosis. Has explicit epistemology. Avoids obvious tinfoil hat gotchas. Provides links. Worth reading.
projectepstein.github.io/#%28part._the-…

Am reading in detail, but upon a quick spot check, they:

- include evidence for the zoonotic hypothesis
- cite & acknowledge @trvrb's thread
- reject the bad "HIV bioweapon" paper
- cite good papers over mainstream media, and mainstream over others

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1230636724713213954

They're accepting pull requests. They should add more evidence for zoonotic hypothesis to balance out coverage, like:

1) How SARS emerged
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
2) Alignment vs pangolin-derived sequences cell.com/current-biolog…
3) Submit pull requests:
github.com/projectepstein…

Right now the article focuses on all the biosafety lab incidents. And yes, it's good for people to understand how common that is.

But to be fair to zoonotic hypothesis, need comparable list of papers on how naturally occurring viruses emerged in the wild. SARS, Ebola, Zika, etc.

The most important thing about science isn't peer review, it's independent replication. Peer review is just a crude substitute for that.

The article does provide links, which helps. You can also independently analyze public viral sequences & phylogenies.
nextstrain.org/ncov/global

The piece below is from 2014/2015. It's a history of lab-escaped viruses by an MD published in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, a nonproliferation outlet.

Article: nationalpost.com/news/a-brief-t…

Paper: armscontrolcenter.org/wp-content/upl…

Btw, default to natural emergence hypothesis for a few reasons.

First, Black Plague & Spanish Flu arose before modern labs. Nature is deadly. Labs aren't a necessary condition for a pandemic.

Second, stakes are so high that we need extraordinary, not circumstantial evidence.

What might extraordinary evidence look like?

Authenticated & timestamped correspondence from senior folks in China stating that it was a lab escape in Nov/Dec 2019.

Researchers coming forward.

Timestamped sequence of full virus uploaded prior to Dec 2019.

That kind of thing.

Good research project might be:

1) Do systematic review of natural emergence events, eg:
pnas.org/content/106/28…

2) Do systematic review of confirmed lab escapes, eg:
armscontrolcenter.org/wp-content/upl…

3) Get sequence data, do multiple alignments, look at other context, compare/contrast

NOTE: they renamed the project and changed the URL.

Here it is:
project-evidence.github.io

NOTE: they renamed the project and changed the URL.

Here it is:
project-evidence.github.io

Good statement from Sydney prof in favor of zoonosis.

See also preprint earlier in thread with comparison to pangolin-derived sequence.

*Arguably*, a smoking gun for zoonosis would be a naturally occurring virus that was just a few substitutions away.

sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/n…