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One of my emerging hypotheses is that COVID-19 is an accelerationist virus. It takes a few years off your life. If you're older or in poor health, this may kill you. But for younger people, it *may* shorten life expectancy on average. A hypothesis to test.
sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/h…
Please note this is just a hypothesis. It's based on severity of organ damage, self-reports, long-term effects seen in SARS.

But something like life expectancy (or QALYs) takes a while to track. Need to begin longitudinal studies of COVID-19 patients now.
We may need to accelerate biomedicine to find & fix all the issues caused by COVID-19 across the body.

Diagnostics: need full body readout of everything broken (like Snyder integrome, q.bio, @goforward to nth power)

Treatment: unblock regenerative medicine
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
Will large crowds rebound to the same extent after the coronavirus pandemic?

If we can quantify this, would be happy to bet with Nate at longbets.org with the proceeds going to charity.
First, there would need to be an effective vaccine, treatment, or something similar to permit unmasked large assemblies.

Second, governments would need to allow them.

Third, the relevant businesses would need to stay solvent (or arise again in a profitable way).
Fourth, all of society would need unchanged preferences. If even 30% opted out of large gatherings, many would become sub-scale businesses.

Fifth, internet-based alternatives would need to be abandoned in the rebound. But (eg) Zoom seems to be catalyzing persistent changes.
Read 6 tweets
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
Thread with thoughts on the (still small?) new outbreak in China, as well as how they're adapting to a post-corona world.

First, the Harbin outbreak is claimed to have been triggered by return migration, and detected at the level of dozens of cases.
archive.is/LBKzy Image
How was the Harbin outbreak detected and contained?

We can guess that it likely involves China's digital quarantine, which uses WeChat and Alipay to give every citizen routinely updated red/yellow/green color codes.
archive.is/gDgfb#selectio…
Image
In the West, only Google, Apple, Facebook have the scale to do something like this.

They could push the app it to all Android & iOS devices. Though keeping it up-to-date with accurate data is nontrivial. As is doing it in a privacy preserving way.
Read 11 tweets
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
Can we figure out a way for founders to tokenize themselves and share their upside with followers in return for labor/tasks rather than capital?

So, rather than following Elon and buying a separate share of Tesla, you complete a task he puts out to get a share of tokenized Elon.
By framing this in terms of labor rather than capital, you could dramatically expand the set of people aligned behind a founder.

And give them a share of wealth created, in return for their support in helping that founder (like Elon, or someone more junior) create that wealth.
The v0 of this would be to just record it as a play money ERC-20 token with no value beyond that which the community assigns to it.

“You get N personal tokens for doing this task.”

No exchange rate quoted. Maybe it’s eventually valuable, or maybe it’s just a fun karma thing.
Read 3 tweets

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