Thread by @michaelmina_lab

In US

Perhaps 30+ MILLION have had #COVID19 virus

In NYC, 15% of pregnancies had antibodies
A German town had 14%
Most asymptomatic

Some nursing homes have ~50%+

Clearly this virus transmits fast

If this is the case, it begins to paint a new path forward for society:

1/n

If shown to be consistent in additional studies, such high numbers infected would suggest

1) SARS-CoV-2 has a much lower fatality rate than we think (by an order of magnitude or more)

2) Population immunity is already building up

Elderly would still remain vulnerable... 2/n

US as of today

among least vulnerable (<55y)

877 deaths; 231M people.

For different assumed % infected (mostly b4 social dist), infection fatality would be:

a) 0.1% infected = 0.37% IFR
b) 1% = 0.037%
c) 10% = 0.0037%
d) 30% = 0.0012%

Truth most likely near c (or d).

3/n

IF 10%+ of population has been infected

fatality rates could begin to look tolerable, particularly when weighed against economic collapse

But to act on it would require massive PROTECTIONS for the more vulnerable (>55y).

To do so would be exceedingly difficult

4/n

But could start painting a path to creatively think up solutions to get people back to work.

First though, more sero-prevalence studies are needed to confirm: is it 1% already infected, or 30%, or somewhere between?

I think >30 Million (>10%)

The next few weeks will tell

CORRECTION:
15% pregnancies had PCR (+) Virus.

Suggests MANY more potentially seropositive for antibodies!