In US
Perhaps 30+ MILLION have had #COVID19 virus
In NYC, 15% of pregnancies had antibodies
A German town had 14%
Most asymptomatic
Some nursing homes have ~50%+
Clearly this virus transmits fast
If this is the case, it begins to paint a new path forward for society:
1/n
Perhaps 30+ MILLION have had #COVID19 virus
In NYC, 15% of pregnancies had antibodies
A German town had 14%
Most asymptomatic
Some nursing homes have ~50%+
Clearly this virus transmits fast
If this is the case, it begins to paint a new path forward for society:
1/n
If shown to be consistent in additional studies, such high numbers infected would suggest
1) SARS-CoV-2 has a much lower fatality rate than we think (by an order of magnitude or more)
2) Population immunity is already building up
Elderly would still remain vulnerable... 2/n
1) SARS-CoV-2 has a much lower fatality rate than we think (by an order of magnitude or more)
2) Population immunity is already building up
Elderly would still remain vulnerable... 2/n
US as of today
among least vulnerable (<55y)
877 deaths; 231M people.
For different assumed % infected (mostly b4 social dist), infection fatality would be:
a) 0.1% infected = 0.37% IFR
b) 1% = 0.037%
c) 10% = 0.0037%
d) 30% = 0.0012%
Truth most likely near c (or d).
3/n
among least vulnerable (<55y)
877 deaths; 231M people.
For different assumed % infected (mostly b4 social dist), infection fatality would be:
a) 0.1% infected = 0.37% IFR
b) 1% = 0.037%
c) 10% = 0.0037%
d) 30% = 0.0012%
Truth most likely near c (or d).
3/n
IF 10%+ of population has been infected
fatality rates could begin to look tolerable, particularly when weighed against economic collapse
But to act on it would require massive PROTECTIONS for the more vulnerable (>55y).
To do so would be exceedingly difficult
4/n
fatality rates could begin to look tolerable, particularly when weighed against economic collapse
But to act on it would require massive PROTECTIONS for the more vulnerable (>55y).
To do so would be exceedingly difficult
4/n
But could start painting a path to creatively think up solutions to get people back to work.
First though, more sero-prevalence studies are needed to confirm: is it 1% already infected, or 30%, or somewhere between?
I think >30 Million (>10%)
The next few weeks will tell
First though, more sero-prevalence studies are needed to confirm: is it 1% already infected, or 30%, or somewhere between?
I think >30 Million (>10%)
The next few weeks will tell
CORRECTION:
15% pregnancies had PCR (+) Virus.
Suggests MANY more potentially seropositive for antibodies!
15% pregnancies had PCR (+) Virus.
Suggests MANY more potentially seropositive for antibodies!
