This article by John Ioannidis @METRICStanford is one of the best articles Ive read lately and encapsulates well so many of the thoughts I’ve had regarding this virus and where we are at 1/...
statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f…
statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f…
In light of significant social distancing measures, people ask whether testing is actually important still... YES!!
We need testing to know the denominators and where we are in this epidemic. We need them to understand whether our interventions are working to slow spread 2/...
We need testing to know the denominators and where we are in this epidemic. We need them to understand whether our interventions are working to slow spread 2/...
Without testing, we do not know whether we have missed 50% of the cases that have occurred or 95% of the cases that have occurred. I think perhaps the latter is more likely, at least for the states. And this is immensely important for deciding control measures. 3/...
The social distancing that we are doing now is incredible and people are taking it very seriously. But to what end. People ask “when will this stop or be enough” and again, we just don’t really know for certain. We need to start looking back in time with antibody based tests 4/..
Antibody based tests will be crucial to know who WAS infected and is now resistant to infection. These are important for figuring out when kids can go back to school since infections in them are largely invisible. Without testing, we can’t tell who was exposed. 5/...
Ultimately, the point is that modern epidemiology and understanding of infectious diseases are data driven disciplines. There is no AI that is going to save us. We need the data, and to get it, testing remains key. Right now we are still flying blind. 6/6
