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At day 35 the confirmed #COVID19 cases in Kenya 🇰🇪 are tracking higher than Italy & Spain which went on to explosively surge from day 45 while France, UK & USA surged from day 55. In the coming 10-20 days we’ll know whether hell breaks lose or we dodge the bullets 😰 #COVID19KE
Daily new confirmed cases per capita, 3-day rolling average comparing Kenya 🇰🇪 Rwanda 🇷🇼 Uganda 🇺🇬 and Tanzania 🇹🇿

Overall Uganda recording fewer new cases followed by Rwanda while Tanzania is on an unprecedented surge.

ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-…
Correction: At day 35 Kenya (4.35 case per million) is tracking *lower than Italy (51.1) & Spain (5.582) but *higher than UK (1.252) and USA (0.106). All these countries surged at 45 to 55 days. Our trajectory can go whichever way. We’ll know in 10-20 days
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Dr Ahmed Kalebi
@DrAhmedKalebi
I looked at COVID-19 data from selected countries comparing the total confirmed cases per million of population from when the index case was reported to date: ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-… (downloaded 28-3-2020)

Some interesting observation on the lag phase & exponential curve...1/4
2/4 ... The lag phase from the first confirmed case to when the numbers start to exponentially rise lasts about 4-5 weeks, after which the confirmed cases start surging in an exponential curve whose steepness & peak depends on number of new cases a day
3/4... The surge in Italy & Spain stated at day 30 & day 38 respectively, with steepest curves & highest surges followed by Germany, France, USA & UK (whose curves are still going up); South Korea had a surge from day 34 but a flatter curve and low peak that remains flattened.
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