I looked at COVID-19 data from selected countries comparing the total confirmed cases per million of population from when the index case was reported to date: ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-… (downloaded 28-3-2020)
Some interesting observation on the lag phase & exponential curve...1/4
Some interesting observation on the lag phase & exponential curve...1/4
2/4 ... The lag phase from the first confirmed case to when the numbers start to exponentially rise lasts about 4-5 weeks, after which the confirmed cases start surging in an exponential curve whose steepness & peak depends on number of new cases a day
3/4... The surge in Italy & Spain stated at day 30 & day 38 respectively, with steepest curves & highest surges followed by Germany, France, USA & UK (whose curves are still going up); South Korea had a surge from day 34 but a flatter curve and low peak that remains flattened.
4/4... Kenya which so far has 31 confirmed cases since the index case reported on 13-3-2020 should expect a surge in the next 3-4 weeks, meaning we should see a dramatic rise in confirmed cases with a flood of sick patients and deaths from around 20th to 25th of April #COVID19KE
