Thread by @MarkkuPeltonen

Use of care and mortality due to corona in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland and Estonia; data from yesterday 19.4.

Read the whole thread. (English)

Fig 1. Number of persons in intensive care per day. Measures the burden on intensive care capacity. 1/x

Fig 2. Number of persons in hospital care per day. Measures the burden on hospital capacity. 2/x

Fig 3. Mortality per million population. (Finland reported 17.4 that number of deaths at care homes are missing; read below). 3/x

Fig 4. Mortality per million population on log-scale, by days since 2/million deaths in the country. (Finland reported 17.4 that number of deaths at care homes are missing; read below). 4/x

Fig 5. Absolute number of deaths by days since 10th death in the country. (Finland reported 17.4 that number of deaths at care homes are missing; read below). 5/x

Geographical differences within Finland; might be of interest to other countries to understand the spread&trend between the capital area (Helsinki) vs rest.
Fig 6. Nr of persons in intensive care/day by the five “specialised medical care regions”: 6/x

Fig 7. Within Finland: Number of persons in hospital care per day by the five “specialised medical care regions”: 7/x

The “new unique ICU patients/day” is still stable in Sweden (starting to decline?), see the figure “Nya unika coronapatienter på IVA i Sverige” (would be better measure of change than the “nr treated/day” I have in fig 1): 8/x
svt.se/datajournalist…

Now also Denmark started to report “new unique ICU patients/day”, or that’s how I read (with my rusty Danish) the figure “Nyindlæggelser­ for patienter med laboratoriebekræftet…” in the following. Rather steep decline since 25-27.3: 9/x
sst.dk/da/corona/tal-…

Mortality data, Finland reported 17.4 that number of deaths at care homes are missing. I will be correcting the figures once the official reporting is corrected; but now Fin is underreported. How many are missing is not clear at the moment. 10/x

Note that most countries do correct their information retrospectively and update the numbers; the numbers you see today are not the same tomorrow. For mortality, my reporting here is delayed with 3 days for most countries for this reason. 11/x

I have not tried to verify that countries have similar approaches in definition of corona-deaths and how the reporting is done; I just use what countries report.

Some differences in the absolute levels between countries could be explained by these kind of differences. 12/x

While comparisons about the levels between countries is difficult, I do think that these data give an idea about the *within country* changes, and differences in *when* changes happen in different countries. 13/x

In addition to the possible differences in definitions/reporting, there could be many other explanations for the country differences: how the disease started to spread in populations (undetected cases); case-mix; distributions of demographics/comorbidities etc. 14/x

Clarification: I work at THL but my work not related to corona (dementia/diabetes); everything here my own opinions.

All data here from public sources; also the Finnish data.

I’m not an expert on infectious disease epidemiology. Trust me.

15/15

Correction, the "Nyindlæggelser­ for patienter med laboratoriebekræftet.." seems to be total hospitalization, not restricted to intensive care.
So, the "new patients hospitalized" declined markedly.