Oil is almost down to $1/barrel. Since many are not familiar with oil markets, its important to note why this is happening.
The May contract expires tomorrow. If you have a May contract at expiration, you must take physical delivery of 1,000 barrels of oil at Cushing in Oklahoma
The May contract expires tomorrow. If you have a May contract at expiration, you must take physical delivery of 1,000 barrels of oil at Cushing in Oklahoma
Oil traders that still have contracts are selling at whatever price they can get because they do not (all) have the ability to take physical delivery.
Storage and refiners are not buying. The $1/barrel is a trading dynamic when there are many sellers and limited buyers
Storage and refiners are not buying. The $1/barrel is a trading dynamic when there are many sellers and limited buyers
This is important: THE REST OF THE FORWARD CURVE HAS NOT CRASHED. The curve is down but the contract for June delivery is still at $22/barrel and July is at $27/barrel.
The $1/barrel May price may mean that storage is fully contracted but it is not clear yet
The $1/barrel May price may mean that storage is fully contracted but it is not clear yet
This is a very concerning development but it does not mean that oil is valueless, yet. The number of actual physical barrels being traded at this prices is very limited. Most of May delivery barrels are contracted in the $20s/barrel and even above
That said, this a terrible sign of whats to come. Its entirely possible that we see sub-$10/barrel spot prices all of May. Negative pricing for spot and futures are also possible for most US barrels
Here is a long-form explanation @FastCompany fastcompany.com/90493860/oil-p…
