Thread by @gilbeaq

I'm at #ecomodernism2019, and there is a panel about Perspectives on the Green New Deal, with @leahstokes and @jerry_jtaylor and moderated by @emilyhholden

I'll be live tweeting in this thread

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Holden: we are here to talk about the role of the #GND and whether it is good politically

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Stokes: in my mind the #GND lives in the Democratic Presidential candidate plans. Inslee plan provided a good base and highlights the scale of the deployment challenge of 8 or more times the historical rate

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden The Bernie plan, with nuclear deleted, is even more challenging. It's 50% harder on a rate base than the Inslee/Warren plan

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Carbon prices alone can't get to the scale needed. Taxes are not technology forcing and historically have been about driving carbon efficiency.

Solutions are needed at the scale of the crisis

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Proponents of the #GND are also trying to solve the inequality issues. Stokes points out that wealth concentrations in the US is at the level of the Gilded Age.

Notes with inequality, energy access is already a challenge and climate policy could exacerbate

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden 1 in 3 Americans already struggle to pay energy bills. A carbon prices could impact those least able to pay more

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Stokes notes that there is a fear from environmental left about siting of new power infrastructures. Points out fear of new nuclear or CCS impacting marginalized communities, even though there is limited evidence of that in practice

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Polling is indicating that climate change is a factor for 2020 vote, with 83% considering it a factor.

In the last five years, Yale climate communication center has found increases in support across the board

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Taylor now: totally agree with Leah, #GNDers, environmental left about the need for action on climate policy.

I disagree on the use of #GND as the policy vehicle to get effective climate policy

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden May very well be a political window for climate legislation in 2021. Windows of opportunity don't stay open for very long.

Successful policy change occurs when there is a policy vehicle that can move through quickly enough

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden The #GND is sucking up so much policy oxygen now, it is intefering with the need prepatory work for a 2021 climate bill.

Healthcare policy provides a good cautionary tale

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Universal healthcare plans, due to politics and disagreement about policy vision, have failed in windows of opportunity in 1972, 1976, and 1992.

Didn't open again until 2008. Was successful because Obamacare built on successful Romneycare vehicle in MA

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Point is that when in the political wilderness between windows of opportunity, need to work on building successful models to be implemented when the window opens.

We are lacking that now, #GND has attempted to fill that vehicle vacuum but not gaining political traction

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden The focus of Sunrise activists on prescriptive policy demands, including attacking climate change champions like Senator Whitehouse, is not likely to build the coalition needed

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Democratic moderates in the Senate are not going to vote for liberal version of #GND.

Despite popularity of climate action, there is no relationship between policy popularity and getting policy passed.

What matters is what can pass

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden "We don't have the luxury of missing this window... I'm asking climate activists to be serious"

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Holden asks, if #GND can't be passed, what can?

Taylor: at best in current Contract could be increase in R&D, perhaps doubling

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Taylor: Would prefer RD&D but unlikely.

The #GND has pressured the GOP in part, though 2018 midterms also influenced, to respond somehow on climate.

GOP is recognizing climate is a liability, as part of other policy liabilities

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Taylor: the #GND is no longer sucking up oxygen. This summer has seen a big change, especially with moderate Dem candidates and initial legislative work

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Stokes: worth noting that public movements had a key role in driving initial environmental laws in the US. Recent activity, like the climate strikes, have pushed the issue. Sunrise has been effective in pushing the Democratic candidates to more aggressive policy proposals

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Stokes: a lot of Jerry's critiques speak to inside Congressional baseball

Taylor: climate used to be low salience in Dems. Today, the GOP is the blocking entity on climate

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Taylor: external pressure needs to focus on the GOP for change. Senators are especially challenging.

Uses example that a GOP MOC in last Congress said no window and environmental advocates wouldn't vote for me if I did. Democrat will beat me anyways on climate

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Holden: what about the research on the non-green parts of the #GND?

Stokes: our research shows that including those policies doesn't change support on right but it vastly increases on the left

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Minor debate about Richard Nixon's environmental legacy and what motivated it. Taylor notes that, domestically, Nixon would almost be a DSA member by modern standards, his focus was on undermining antiwar movement

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Holden: if politician's aren't responding to public opinion what are they responding to?

Taylor: minority preferences are better organized, politically motivated. NRA is a good example with weaponized activist wing targeting primaries

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Taylor: there are coalitions within both parties that are influential. Politician's responding to coalitional actors, they don't care about their district opinion surveys, care about activated voters

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Stokes: our research shows that Congressional staffers misestimate public opinion the more they meet with interest groups. Concentrated interest groups have captured politics. Environmental movement needs to shift MOC perceptions of opinion

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Going to Q&A. Will tweet anything particularly interesting

@leahstokes @jerry_jtaylor @emilyhholden Taylor (in response to what can get GOP support): in next Congress, of window opens, there could be GOP support for a significant carbon tax. There is enough cover for GOP votes. It doesn't need to be the only part of legislation but it would need to be in the center