THREAD on testing - what Gov. Abbott has said, what the data shows, and what his and other experts recommend (1/28)
#txlege
"We have not even been able to scratch the surface of testing. We're all ready to get out of our houses and go back to work. But we don't even know what's out there"
expressnews.com/politics/texas…
#txlege (2/28)
Better testing is the top priority, so we are following it closely...
#txlege (3/28)
1) What Gov. Abbot and his experts say about testing
2) The data we know and the data we lack
3) Are we following best practices, and what can we learn from outside TX?
First, what Gov. Abbott has said on testing the past few days...
#txlege (4/28)
texastribune.org/2020/04/17/tex…
#txlege (6/28)
dallasnews.com/news/public-he…
#txlege (7/28)
Mark McClellan of @DukeMargolis, a well-respected expert, leads the TX health care task force. A recent paper by him and @ScottGottliebMD provides guidance for Texas on testing...
#txlege (8/28)
healthpolicy.duke.edu/sites/default/…
His paper lays out specifics for what Texas needs to do next...
#txlege (9/28)
2. Get local data efficiently, share all state info w/ national Syndromic Surveillance system to better track spread of COVID-19...
#txlege (10/28)
4. Get capacity to conduct rapid-response contract tracing, testing, and quarantine
Reminder those 4 steps are what Gov. Abbott’s top health adviser recommends...
#txlege (11/28)
We are likely still early in Step 2, with no clear metrics for testing now or in the future, and as we rank so low in per-capita testing
Which is why the 2nd big item we are following is the data we know and the data we lack...
#txlege (12/28)
txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… #txlege
That is a 9.83% positivity rate -- which is staggeringly high, and a clear sign of an epidemic...
#txlege (13/28)
#txlege (14/28)
-Tuberculoisis, 1-2%
-Zika, 0.5-1%
-HIV, 0.4%
And positivity rates for COVID-19 in other countries:
-S. Korea, 2%
-Australia, 2%
-Germany, 7%
#txlege (15/28)
And remember - that's while we rank near last in per-capita testing...
#txlege (16/28)
1. 25% of those w/ COVID-19 show no symptoms, and therefore are unlikely to be tested
2. As many as 15% of the "quick test" Abbott ID tests come back with a false negative...
npr.org/sections/healt…
#txlege (17/28)
Texas ranks near-last in per-capita testing; our ~10% positivity rate is still dangerously high; and some private testing coming on board now has more than a 1-in-8 chance of saying you don’t have COVID-19 when you do…
#txlege (18/28)
1. How many daily tests do we need to *start* to safely re-open the economy?
2. How many daily tests do we need to *fully* be safe to re-open the economy?
#txlege (20/28)
That would be 450k to 1.8 million tests just for Texans alone
Again: the most Texas has done in a day so far is 14k...
abcnews.go.com/US/road-map-re…
#txlege (22/28)
#txlege (23/28)
On updates w/ Members & staff, @TexasDSHS has provided no indication a tracing program is underway...
#txlege (24/28)
fox7austin.com/news/hays-coun…
The concern there is - like with stay-at-home orders - counties step up to lead, then the state comes in late and brings confusion...
#txlege (25/28)
We also need to expand coverage, secure more PPE supplies, and fix the nursing home crisis…
#txlege (26/28)
TX needs better testing, more transparency, and clear metrics - based on experts’ advice - on when we will have enough tests to get back to normal
#txlege (27/28)