Thread by @TommyVitolo

OK, here’s my Earth Day edu-rant. I’ve been stewing on it all day. It’s going to focus on climate change, which is a part of Earth Day concerns, along with ecology, sensing and enjoying nature, and a bunch of other stuff I suppose.

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Before I get into the edu-rant, understand that I am a Massachusetts state representative, so this is from the view of MA, USA. For your jurisdiction, kindly adjust accordingly. And yes, all jurisdictions gotta get this done.

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And before you at me, yes we need to do it in a progressive manner. Yes, we need environmental justice (EJ) as a part. Yes, we need to be mindful of organized labor (#1u !). Yes, we need a just transition. That’s all a given.

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But (side rant), we need give *and* take. I see loads of enviros and enviro orgs bending big time on these things, but I frankly don’t see a whole lot of the other side bending on any of this, as if they won’t suffer the worst of the climate change destruction (they will!).

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Here’s the ground rules. Either you agree:
- major CO2 cuts by 2030
- much more by 2040
- almost all by 2050
or you are anti-science and gtho.

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If you, like me, believe science, here’s the dealio for climate change:
* Convert all electric generation to carbon-free
* Convert all motorized transportation to electric
* Convert all heating & cooling to electric
This is not an ordered list, and all means all.

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It’s not an ordered list because we must work on all of them at once, and because AND PAY ATTENTION: electric transpo & heat/cool is less CO2 than methane or oil or gasoline today and will continue to improve.

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We burn fossil fuels with machines, which are capital expenses. We buy a car every 5-10 years, a heater every 20, a power plant every 30. Once we own it, it’s hard to stop using it until it wears out. If you’ve made a car payment on an already-totaled car, you get it.

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We’ve only got 30 years left! That means that we cannot build ANY new fossil fuel power plants starting now or else we’ll have to turn off still-working equipment (aka write off undepreciated asset).

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We’re not there yet. We’re mostly building renewables, but not entirely. We need to STOP building fossil electric generators, and good news(!), coronavirus will stop some new projects. We also need more T&D (wires) to move power from renewable sources to buildings.

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But that’s just power gen. What about buildings? Building heating systems last 20+ years and whereas there are 1000s of fossil-fired power plants in US, there are 10,000,000s of fossil-fired heating systems and EVERY SINGLE ONE MUST BE RIPPED OUT.

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But what will we heat with? Electric. The baseboard heaters from the 70s that are cheap to install but super expensive to run? No, not mostly. Most will be heat pumps, and most of those will be air source (ASHPs).

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ASHPs are much more efficient than the old resistance electric heaters, and yes Martha, they work just fine in super cold weather these days. No combustion, no oil or propane fuel tanks, no exhaust. And bonus: the same machine works as an air conditioner!

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The problem: We need to install 10,000,000s of them in the US alone, in the next 30 years. But boilers/furnaces last 20+ years. That means that starting in 2030, 100% of all heating system replacements must be with ASHPs.

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We have 10 years to ramp up an entire industry replacement. That’s hard and will require the heavy hand of government. It’s hard enough to raise tax on gasoline, but heat? Too hard. So we must subsidize/tariff the equipment, not the fuel.

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And we’ve got to ramp up the installers, service techs, supply chains, engineers, contractors, and BTW the local small biz oil distributors et al need a just transition. That’ll take lots of carrots.

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But again, there is no other choice. People gotta heat, insulation and air sealing (important!) can’t get you down to 0 fuel use, and either you believe in science or gtho, so there’s no other way.

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Transportation, in a sense, is the easiest. It’s the least urgent, because people buy cars more frequently, so we have more “chances”. But, we need intermediate CO2 reduction not just a 2050 target, and EVs can help us quickly.

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So yeah, you won’t drive an EV on your cross-country cannonball run, but fine, rent a gasoline car for that. For your pre-COVID typical trips day in day out, an EV is great.

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So people gotta buy 'em. More carrots, and sticks too I think. But what about mass transit, bike, walk, scoot, carpool, telecommute? Won’t that save us?

No.

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Mass transit, walk, bike, telecommute, carpool, scoot in transportation is like energy efficiency (EE) in heating and electric use. It’s noble, it has multiple benefits, it can save money.

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And if we needed a 20% reduction in CO2, non-motorized transpo and EE would help solve our problems. But we need 80%-100%. The vast majority of miles traveled in US are with autos, by people who live in suburban or rural areas.

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Suburban homes can’t pick themselves up, walk to the nearest city, and self-assemble into apartment buildings. People will live in USA sprawl for at least the next 30 years, and they’ll want to travel. EVs are the only way.

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To remind you: here’s the dealio for climate change:
* Convert all electric generation to carbon-free
* Convert all motorized transportation to electric
* Convert all heating & cooling to electric
This is not an ordered list, and all means all.

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Now what? It’s Earth Day, what do I do about this? Well, there are two things on separate paths. Do both:
(A) Change behavior
(B) Change policy

Let’s start with (A). Change behavior. This will help, for a variety of reasons. It won’t be enough, but it will help. What to do?

(i) Convert your electric generation to carbon free, in 3 steps (and in this order):

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1. EE. LED bulbs; get rid of the 2nd fridge in the basement/garage/man-cave; turn stuff off. Energy & air seal your home (with $ incentives) so you use less AC.

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2. Get 100% green-e for what’s left. I like @GEConsumers, you may like something else. Some programs through utility, most 3rd party.

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Look at getting PV installed on your roof, and do it if you can. Not everybody can. Thems the breaks. @JennTaranto & I can’t, for example. We did 1 & 2 tho.

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(ii) Convert your auto to electric, in 3 steps (and in this order):

1. Decide today, #EarthDay, that your next auto purchase/lease will be an EV. Commit to it.
2. When it’s time for a new auto, remember (1).
3. Go to (2).

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(iii) Convert your heat to electric. This is harder. 3 steps (and in this order):

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1. Decide today, #EarthDay, that your next heating system will be electric. Commit.
2. Call an ASHP expert to come have a look at your system post-corona. Don’t call just any HVAC firm; call one that knows heat pumps well.
3. Get the work done this summer, or when you can.

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That’s it. That’s the 3 steps to decarbonizing your home. It will take time. @JennTaranto & I have been working on it. We haven’t had a gas auto since 2006. We switched to 100% green-e in '08. We ditched our gas air heater in '19. We 86'd our gas-fired water heater in '20.

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We still have a gas-fired cooktop, a gas-fired clothes dryer, and a gas-fired BBQ grill. But we also have a plan and a commitment to transition all three of them to carbon-free operations.

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We’re not perfect, but we’re actively reducing our CO2 and today it’s ~97% less than the average US household. On a personal level, over time, you can do it too.

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But what about (B), POLICY? I am a State Representative, after all. Surely, policy is part of it? Yer dern tootin’.

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Let’s, once again, review our objectives:
* Convert all electric generation to carbon-free
* Convert all motorized transportation to electric
* Convert all heating & cooling to electric
This is not an ordered list, and all means all.

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Elec gen? This is the easiest. We have tools in place, like the Massachusetts RPS, 83(c) & 83(d), SREC/SREC II/SMART, and EE policies. We need to turn the knobs. More RPS, more offshore wind and @HydroQuebec, more solar PV & EE.

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And we need it *NOW*. Like Q3&4 2020 now. It’s great for economic recovery. All of the construction jobs means money in the MA economy. And, every single one of these items drives down the cost of wholesale electricity, lowering operating costs.

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The cost of these programs? We don’t pay it now — we bond capital infrastructure and pay over the next 20-30 years. We get the economic benefits NOW, but pay LATER. That’s the recipe for economic recovery.

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There are a few big bills that work this, including @SeanGarballeyMA & @MarjorieDecker’s H.2836. I’d love to see it (or parts of it) included in a House climate bill this session.

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What about EVs? We could do better there. @CarolynDykema has been a MA champion of EV incentives for autos of a modest price tag, and I’m certain she’ll continue to fight doggedly for more.

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The Mass Board of Building Regulation and Standards (BBRS) should require EV charging infrastructure as part of new construction. It would dramatically lower the cost of charging. Look for a bill in 2021 if BBRS doesn’t move sooner.

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EVs could also benefit from @MassDOT. They own the land on which a bunch of filling stations operate. They should require (via lease) major EV charging at every one of them on the Pike and elsewhere.

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Similarly, other agencies like @MassDCR should install EV charging stations at every state-owned park, skating rink, forest, preserve, and beach. Same with @MassRMV, et al.

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So what about heat? That’s the hardest, and it’s what I’ve been personally working on in the state legislature, encouraged by folks like @TomTipiGolden @BarrettSenate & @Sen_Chandler.

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It’s hard for a few reasons. Folks have (bad) memories of expensive resistance electric heat from the 1970s. They believe it won’t work in super cold weather. They worry about power outages. That, and inertia.

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Yip, baseboard resistance electric heat from the 1970s was expensive. This isn’t that. ASHPs are much cheaper to operate, with operation costs on par with gas and cheaper than oil, depending on some details. Install costs? Also, depends.

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But won’t it fail in super cold weather? Nope. It won’t. It will be more expensive to operate on the frigid few days, but just as you use more natural gas in the coldest month, you’ll use more electric. It’s no showstopper.

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What about when the power goes out, you ask? Here’s a fun fact: your natural gas or oil boiler almost certainly has an electric circuit. When the power goes out, your fossil fuel burning equipment won’t operate. So, it’s a push.

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Inertia, that’s the real challenge. Architects, engineers, builders, HVAC installers, technicians, and inspectors are all used to oil and natural gas. They know it well. Change is hard.

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And, unlike your auto, you as a homeowner almost never take a good look at your furnace or boiler. As a tenant, you may not even be able to see it even if you want to. Out of sight, out of mind.

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And that’s why we need policy. We need the BBRS to step in. I filed a bill w @Sen_Chandler to require that Massachusetts state gov’t use ASHPs or ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) or other clean heating when building new or doing major renovation. H.2930.

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But my bill was sent to study. It needs more work. And, it would only apply to <1% of all heating systems in MA. Obviously, it’s not enough. And I’ll work hard on it in 2020, to re-submit a bolder version in 2021.

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New boilers or furnaces installed in 2020 will still be operating after 2040. That’s a major problem, and it requires policy to change new installs. If costs are similar, and it just works, occupants don’t care about the tech. So let’s use clean tech.

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And all of this is within the framework of the Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA). My colleague @JoanMeschino has a roadmap for our CO2 reductions, the H.3983 2050 Roadmap Bill. It’s big time. It’s a frame work for electric gen, transportation, and heating without CO2.

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So unless you’re a member of the Massachusetts House or Senate (or @MassGovernor), what does this have to do with you? Legislators, like everybody else, are both leaders and followers. You too can lead.

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Talk to us. Call us, write us, meet us for coffee some day. Bring your skills, your experiences, and the facts to the conversation. But also talk to each other. Write a letter to the editor. Make policy to fight climate change inevitable, and don’t settle for less.

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Made it this far? Wow. Like this particular tweet to indicate that.

:)

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#EarthDay fills me with angst, and this year something something misuse of the word exponential. The COVID crisis is a mini-climate crisis on an accelerated timeline.

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We’ve got astroturf-whipped wing nuts stomping on capital grounds 100 at a time, governors opening up states in a week, and a @POTUS who has failed us on all of this.

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But we’ve also seen incredible response. We shut down 1/3 of the economy in a week. We built hospital physical and personnel capacity in a week. We bent the curve in a week.

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Just like a single day’s COVID delay cost us big time two weeks later, every year of delay in climate action will cost us in 2030, 2040, and 2050. We didn’t beat coronavirus by mistake, and we won’t just happen to beat climate change.

We must decide to do it.

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Thank you for reading. This is hard. Keep pushing, and don't require perfection. Require major improvement with every step.

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P.S. Thank you @AlGore.