1/ Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 36
After stats, a grab bag today – stuff that I’m reading, hearing & otherwise thinking about.
@UCSFhospitals stable, w/ 17 cases, 4 intubated. Last 1200 tests (PCR) @ucsf: 1% positive. Still only 1 death since start, 41 recovered & discharged.
After stats, a grab bag today – stuff that I’m reading, hearing & otherwise thinking about.
@UCSFhospitals stable, w/ 17 cases, 4 intubated. Last 1200 tests (PCR) @ucsf: 1% positive. Still only 1 death since start, 41 recovered & discharged.
2/ SF: 1233 cases, up 2(!). Hospitalizd pts flat. 21 deaths in SF, up 1 in last wk. Nice piece @TheAtlantic on SF’s success in Crushing the Curve bit.ly/3apa7Xj Below, reaction when @LondonBreed banned crowds (early March), canceling @warriors hoops. Gutsy & life-saving.
3/ @tomaspueyo’s “Hammer & the Dance” is essential reading re: what comes next bit.ly/34Ryhsk. His new piece @Medium, “Learning How to Dance,” is Part 1 in brilliant primer on lessons from other nations re: controlling Covid in tricky next phase bit.ly/34Uhdls
4/ Pueyo’s analysis is incredibly thorough & vivid, esp. amazing #dataviz & videos. Below clip is re: Taiwan’s successes; other stories re: Korea, China & Singapore. Lessons for U.S. abound, though many steps will butt heads with the “Give Me Liberty…” thread of U.S. politics
5/ Contrast stories of response in Asia w/ George Packer’s brutal piece @TheAtlantic on how Covid exposed America’s “failed state” bit.ly/3aAHMh3 “It should force a question,” he writes, “… Are we still capable of self-government?” Depressing but essential read.
6/ Another great one: @nytimes on how virus entered/spread thru Seattle, from there to SF, & then to >15 states & 6 nations nyti.ms/2xPParo Highlights role of genetic fingerprinting, super-spreader problem (inc. famous square dance) & work of @trvrb & @ucsf’s Charles Chiu
7/ Overall, press (old & new) has performed beautifully, w/ stories that describe complexities & human drama. And amazing use of #dataviz to illustrate complex points, such as below (from nyti.ms/3bq23Hb), which illustrates how wrong the “just like the flu” argument is
8/ One that @nytimes blew is @ginakolata nyti.ms/3bt6Uaw on @stanford Santa Clara study, whose conclusion (actual-cases = 50-85x diagnosed cases) will, I believe, be proven wrong. Good stories gave voice to v. credible critiques (some here: bit.ly/2VypcSt, #15 …
9/ …but Kolata piece violates journalistic norms, w/ 4 quotes from John Ioannidis (a coauthor & one who has downplayed Covid from start [see bit.ly/2KmFZRQ & below, from his 3/17 piece, in which he projects 10K U.S. deaths]), & not a single quote from a critic.
10/ Relevant sections of @ginakolata piece nyti.ms/3bt6Uaw below, w/ 4 self-serving quotes from Ioannidis. Surprising and disappointing for @NYTScience – this is lazy reporting.
11/ Debate does show that, in this swirl, w/ rapt attention to each new finding, it’s tricky w/ many studies coming out as preprints or press releases. I’m impressed that Twitter is quasi-crowdsourced peer-review, which has its own challenges but – to me – has performed well.
12/ Public interest also means non-scientists seeing world of scientific discovery – inc Bayesian reasoning, confidence intervals, cognitive biases….Unsettling, but ultimately good to let folks in on our secret: science/medicine involve uncertainty, educated guesses, & iteration
13/ Re uncertainty, great hearing @andyslavitt interview @natesilver on podcast, “In the Bubble” bit.ly/34VL9ha We’re used to Nate teaching us prediction/uncertainty in politics; his insights are equally relevant to Covid. (Ignore AS’s snarky line about golf @ 36:30)
14/ Heartwarming: on top of my 20 @ucsf colleagues now @nyphospital in NY, 21 more (7 MD/14 RN), part of our @healinitiative, left today to help in hard-hit #NavajoNation bit.ly/2Vs6VWE Couldn’t be prouder or more in awe of these folks.
More tomorrow, w/ Grand Rounds…
More tomorrow, w/ Grand Rounds…
Oops, @ASlavitt is correct address. God, I wish Twitter let you edit a tweet....
