Thread by @DynastyTripp

So, LOTS of tight-end news this week! I thought I'd take the opportunity to share some research that helped me understand the position and how it translates to #FantasyFootball. (1/8)

Here's the article I created the data sets for if you're curious: dynastyfootballfactory.com/free-agency-me…

The stereotypical dichotomy is the big slot vs. the 3rd-tackle. A look at snap % that a TE plays scratches the surface of understanding. Eric Ebron and Hunter Henry line up in the slot most of the time. At the opposite end of the spectrum? Tyler Higbee & Vance McDonald 🤨 (2/8)

Tight ends' average depth of target peels back another flap of the black box. The big slots stay high in the numbers. Down the list, ADOT better indicates utilization in the pass game.

A clearer dichotomy of fantasy-relevant TEs emerges: the big slot and the YAC monster. (3/8)

George Kittle exemplifies the YAC monster - an athlete asked to create after short receptions. Jonnu Smith profiles similarly, which is notable in that his usage was unlike the injured Delanie Walker, who he ostensibly replaced. (4/8)

The YAC monsters have a couple hurdles to fantasy relevance. First, they gotta work for those yards! Second, they just don't get as many opportunities to work in the pass game. The big slots lead NFL TEs in routes run. I added WRs here for context. (5/8)

Unsurprisingly, then, Kittle leads the league in yards per route run. PFF finds this efficiency metric predictive for repeatability by WRs, notably at the extremes. While 20 WRs finished >2 Yds/RR, only 7 TEs did. (6/8)

But data don't score points! The points arise from volume and efficiency. Oh, and TDs 😀. Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, and Waller achieved both in 2019.

Can (should?) Hooper and Ertz maintain the volume in 2020? Can Higbee, Dissly (INJ), and Cook gain the volume for TE1 years? (7/8)

I have some more numbers to crunch to get a sense of the Colts' and Bucs' TE groups for 2020. The Hooper article earlier in the thread hints at the analysis. See you tomorrow! (8/8)

(Notes: data collected from PFF and PFRef, only TEs with more than 25 targets included)

Encore!
So, who do I like? A reasonable Q
Jarwin and Hurst are early in their careers and suddenly have wide open paths to volume. Upticks in efficiency could lead to big things for #FantasyFootball. Smith is interesting too, but Anthony Firkser remains in a PT downfield role.