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813. HOSPITAL deaths. (20,341 total) 13.7%

28,781 Tests (640,792 total)

73,614 People (517,836 total). This includes a retrospective 50,499 people with negative tests between 31/1/20 - 24/4/20. It seems not ALL labs reported ALL results. WHAT?!

4913 +ve. ( 148,377 total)
Taking into account a large extra cohort of 50k people (30/1/20-24/4/20) who were tested but produced -ve results it looks as if about 28% of the people actually tested are positive out of over a half a mill people tested

But horrendous deaths-7 weeks since 1st hospital death
@jneill ‘s graphs

Here are @Egbert_PengWu cumulative data charts.

I also add some new charts from @ARedRobinson that focuses on exponential growth rates. This shows a marked downward trend overall, even though recorded HOSPITAL deaths remain high

This from @GreatStrides65 shows the curve of the death toll, confirming that it started to plateau after 10th April before gradually descending but still a long way to go before getting to near zero again.

Especially with over 4K new +ves yesterday

And a reminder from @ChrisGiles_ yesterday that the excess deaths linked to the CV outbreak are likely to be in excess of 45k & still rising

And bound to keep rising as long as we are finding over 4K +ves a day when testing only 23,115 people yesterday.

Remember it tends to take several weeks from symptoms to death. And we have, since the peak, still been getting over 4K positives every single day. Already in the system.

14 days x 4K = 56k
13.5% mortality = 7560 HOSPITAL deaths likely AT LEAST.

Plus all still to come
@ChrisGiles_ updates his model and projection based on information that deaths announced today include c 150 Wnglish deaths that would have been included in the ONS data up to & inc 10 April.

We will have to wait and see what delays there are in ONS data

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More from @fascinatorfun see all

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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯#FBPE
@fascinatorfun
This is interesting.

56% in a care home asymtomaric at the time of transmission

But 24/27 later went on to develope symptoms.

We need to think about those 27 especially as well as the 21 who were symptomatic but probably were not for a few days.

How will that work “out here”?
It is interesting for a number of reasons

The starting point

The finding out

The response

And lessons to learn

Description

Feb 29
X2 daily basic checks =Temperature? Other symptoms? Staff too

1.3.2020. Staff member +ve
Worked on 26 + 28/2/2020
2/3 Resident symptomatic
By March 6th all staff fully equipped with PPE including N95 masks.

Despite all that the infection had already spread.

8/3/2020. Tests. 6 residents positive. 2 asymptomatic.

More precautions.
Read 6 tweets
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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯#FBPE
@fascinatorfun
Excellent from @ActuaryByDay on ICU Network reports

BAME, male and lower economic groups very over represented in ICU and in bad outcomes.

Surviving ICU is still 50/50 overall!

Below age 50, 1-in-4 dies.

Above age 70, 1-in-3 lives.
And, again, for “they would have died anyway” , merchants, the mean age on admission was just under 60 years old and the vast majority (92.5%) to ICU were living independently without assistance. But c 50% die.

On top of those too old or frail to be admitted to ICU of course.
A couple of charts to add to Stuart’s thread.

Almost all ICU patients need respiratory support but it looks as if the reliance on ventilator support, whilst considerable, has reduced to below 70%. Most require cardiovascular support.

Over 20% require renal support
Read 5 tweets
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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯#FBPE
@fascinatorfun
Inside UK care homes: why the system is failing its coronavirus test

11k Care home residents likely dead as a result of CV

NOBODY, let alone the most elderly, the weakest, the frailest the most vulnerable, would wish to be treated this way.

ft.com/content/86d980…
ONE care home end of March
2 residents were struggling to breathe. 2 days later, 1 had died and by Good Friday so had 6 more. By Thurs this week, 19 of the group’s c200 residents were dead, 59 were infected & nearly half the staff were off work, fearing they too were contagious.
It must be a nightmare for the staff who, from the FT and also @lewis_goodall #Newsnight accounts have to fight to get ANY tests for residents, let alone all residents and staff.

But Gov expected them to take hospital discharges. And were not even testing them on discharge.
Read 7 tweets

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