In his @unherd interview, SAGE member @nfergus said the reproduction rate of #Covid19 in UK has been suppressed to 0.6-0.7. This is highly significant, because it is close to the R0 of circa 0.5 that @CMO_England has said would make it relatively less...
risky to change lockdown measures to restart the economy (to an extent). That said we won’t get easing of lockdown this week. And as one senior government member told me “the margins for manœuvre with R0 less than 1 and the virus running rampant again are agonisingly small”...
So don’t expect any rapid return to what we used to think of as normal life. And don’t expect any changes of note till the new “test track and trace” infrastructure is up and running. PS R0 is the statistical representation of the number of people...
typically infected by a single person with the virus. It was thought to be between 2 and 3 when #covid19 was tearing through the population
Flip. NOT @nfergus but @neil_ferguson. Hate my FAT FINGER. Sorry to both
