Michael Gove will give evidence later to the Commons EU committee on Brexit progress. Much to ask, for on current plans the government has to make decisions in the next 2 months which will shape our international relations for years to come - my latest 1/ prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-…
We shouldn't dwell too much on last week's talks. 2nd rounds of trade talks typically demonstrate the many reasons why the process will take years. So no great surprises. Over time negotiators would resolve most issues, leaving last for politicians. But if you refuse the time? 2/
Putting in place unprecedented deadlines means fast decisions. The EU has almost certainly made theirs - they have precedents, acute awareness of dometic interests, and an international reputation as a tough negotiator. They want a deal, but only on their terms. What of UK? 3/
The UK has only a vague precedent as part of EU trade deals. We don't really know how to translate business needs into a good trade agreement, we probably don't have the detailed knowledge. That's to be expected, but a slim basis for major decisions. 4/
So those decisions. The UK government previously said they may walk away from talks in June if only limited progress had been made. My expectation is that they would look very silly indeed invoking this given the coronavirus crisis. But worth asking. 5/ theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
The UK and EU are also supposed to reach agreement on access to UK fishing waters in June. Huge moment. Keep fishing fleets happy and reduce the chances of an overall UK-EU deal. Or vice versa. Remembering that our fishing fleets also need access to EU markets. Fudge possible? 6/
So we start making decisions affecting UK-EU trade in just a few weeks. But those decisions also affect internal trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. No deal with EU, greater GB-NI barriers. As @hayward_katy laid out brilliantly last week. 7/
This is where the UK's choices become not just about EU trade. Implement the Northern Ireland protocol and GB-NI trade is based on the deal or not with the EU. Breaking promises to Northern Ireland. Don't implement properly and forget trade deals with EU or US. Choices... 8/
Let's assume as reasonable that the UK doesn't succeed in changing the EU position, but doesn't walk away from talks in June. So then government face an Autumn of decisions on the same subjects, but with less time to adjust. 9/
There isn't enough time by Autumn to have negotiated all the minutiae of a trade deal in detail, so one choice will be to take what will be mostly EU text (with some limited UK elements) or go for no-trade deal. Nobody knows if the UK will blink at this point or not. 10/
There is a theory that the government will welcome getting no-deal pain out of the way at the time of the coronavirus economic crisis. But bear in mind this is a government elected on a manifesto of 80% of UK trade covered by FTAs in 2022. Not happening without an EU deal. 11/
Some Brexit supporters have always seen a US trade deal as a key motivation, any EU deal to be secondary. But talks with the US haven't started. There's a Presidential election coming up. And the President's authority to negotiate trade deals runs out in June 2021. Tricky. 12/
So we could be leaving the transition period at the end of December with no trade deal with the EU or US, and no immediate prospect of either. That wasn't the plan. But it has to be part of the consideration of those immediate decisions on fisheries / N Ireland etc. 13/
Then we're reminded this morning by a story about future UK participation in the Lugano convention that we do actually want more than a standard FTA - and that the EU has considerable powers to make life uncomfortable with no deal. 14/
That the foundation of the UK's long-term international relations will be significantly determined in the coming weeks at the same time as the coronavirus crisis is rightly consuming almost all attention has not been fully appreciated. Possibly not even by Ministers. 15/
Unless the government changes its mind on extending transition (also by June) these are crucial weeks for the future of the UK. The moment they have to make choices about winners and losers. So, crisis or not, we have to go back to talking Brexit. 16/ end prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-…
