Warning: A new video making the rounds in right-wing media pushes a dangerous plan to re-open the economy. It features 2 owners of urgent care centers & is an assault on good science. They'll be on Laura Ingraham's show on Fox News tonight. Here's why it must be debunked: (1/16)
As a Board Certified ER doctor for 20+ years, I'm stunned & alarmed that 2 urgent care docs are extrapolating info they gleaned from testing just over 5000 people in 1 county, & using that "data" to hatch bizarre notions about #COVID19. That's not how science works. (2/16)
Their "method" is full of bad assumptions. They use positive test rates (in CA, NY & the U.S.) to assume the number of infections nationwide. So, since 19.6% of those tested in the U.S. have been positive, their model concludes that 64 million currently have the infection. (3/16)
Then they take the number of recorded #COVID19 deaths (a shaky stat since we don't know how many die at home) & divide by 64M - to conclude the risk of death is less than the flu. Remember, only 17% of COVID cases have recovered or died yet. Most have unknown conclusions! (4/16)
Considering that 109k #COVID19 patients have recovered & 55k died, out of nearly 1M cases... how can they extrapolate to the larger population without knowing the outcomes of the other 835k? Their statistical method (simple division & multiplication) doesn't quite cut it. (5/16)
In plain English: We've had as many deaths from #COVID19 in less than 3 months than an entire year of a “bad” flu season. And that's with social distancing measures in place. What would the number be if we'd NOT been employing the tactics these businessmen want to halt? (6/16)
Here's their theory: staying home will “weaken” the immune system, because being exposed to the #coronavirus can result in immunity without risk. The problem: right now, with no vaccine, you cannot get exposed to antigens to create antibodies without risking infection. (7/16)
What they're describing (herd immunity) is how vaccines work. But! We do not have one yet! To achieve herd immunity, we'd need 70% of individuals to become infected with #COVID19. If this happened in a compressed time frame, right now, the results would be catastrophic. (8/16)
This is the whole point of “flattening-the-curve”: to limit the huge spikes in infections that would result in hospitalizations exceeding capacity & skyrocketing deaths. As we still lack a national testing plan, social distancing is the only way to achieve this goal today. (9/16)
So their "science" is faulty at best. As struggling business owners, their economic frustration is understandable. But it can't be mistaken for science. People trust doctors. When they tell Fox viewers to ignore recommendations from real experts, many will believe them. (10/16)
The impact of rejecting science-proven recommendations in exchange for these erroneous ideas would overwhelm health systems and cost lives. While re-opening the economy might be good for their Urgent Care Centers, it would kill medical personnel on the actual front lines. (11/16)
As an ER doctor for 20 years, we are trained to measure every word we utter, both in the exam room and on national TV. We present anecdote transparently, and only base recommendations on the science generated from others who are experts in their field. (12/16)
With all due respect, 1 of these docs says on his CA Medical Board profile that he does mostly administration, plus patient care & teaching 1-9 hr/wk. Doing a few hrs/week clinically does not give a full perspective of what's happening in our ERs. (13/16) search.dca.ca.gov/details/8002/A…
There's no data on the CA Medical Board site for the other doctor. What we do know is they are co-owners of a chain of Urgent Care Centers, and have said their volumes are down, meaning the statewide lockdown is having a negative economic impact on their business. (14/16)
As a skilled practitioner of Evidence Based Medicine honed over 2 decades, I'd gladly debate this issue any time/any place with these gentlemen. The glaring problems with the info they're spreading is alarming to me & the vast majority of my colleagues across the country. 15/16
If “first, do no harm” is a guiding principle in medical practice, I fear they've already breached that principle. To allow this disinformation to spread to a wider audience unchecked, would be a dereliction of duty on the rest of the medical community. /END.
Correction: Dan Erickson is licensed by the California Osteopathic Medical Board. He is not Board Certified. Here’s the link: search.dca.ca.gov/details/9001/2…
