This is fun
I was taking a look at the new Mann/PSU seasonal hurricane forecast (15-24 named storms, best estimate of 20 storms)
essc.psu.edu/essc_web/resea…
And I noticed that Mann doesn't even believe his own research ... short thread
I was taking a look at the new Mann/PSU seasonal hurricane forecast (15-24 named storms, best estimate of 20 storms)
essc.psu.edu/essc_web/resea…
And I noticed that Mann doesn't even believe his own research ... short thread
Mann cites his 2007 paper which argued that ther was not a serious under count in past TC records, certainly nothing approaching an under count of 3 storms per year ...
meteo.psu.edu/holocene/publi…
meteo.psu.edu/holocene/publi…
Mann also cites Vecchi and Knutsom 2008 on the same question of TC under counts, who argue contrary to Mann that the under count actually exceeds 3 storms per year
journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/20…
journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/20…
So which is it on the under count?
~1 per year or >3 per year?
Fortunately Mann settles this dispute
~1 per year or >3 per year?
Fortunately Mann settles this dispute
PS. In case you are curious ...
RMSE of Mann/PSU prediction 2009-2019 = 1.4 storms/year
RMSE of trailing 10-yr average = 1.3 storms/year
So, no skill
Trailing 10-yr average says ~70% chance of 12-20 storms in 2020
/END
RMSE of Mann/PSU prediction 2009-2019 = 1.4 storms/year
RMSE of trailing 10-yr average = 1.3 storms/year
So, no skill
Trailing 10-yr average says ~70% chance of 12-20 storms in 2020
/END
PPS. For an excellent overview of seasonal hurricane forecasting, see @philklotzbach et al. 2019
tcrr.typhoon.org.cn/EN/abstract/ab…
tcrr.typhoon.org.cn/EN/abstract/ab…
