Took 2y longer than expected, but #Bitfinex cold wallet is finally being drained. 57k BTC outflow in 70 days. Will it hold or finally spiralling out of control? #Bitcoin
1/n To understand if $35k #Bitcoin makes any sense, you need to 'zoom out' first. First of all, we've never had $500 million+ buy orders executed in a couple of days. Not to mention an S&P500 company using it as reserves. Grayscale GBTC captured huge inflows, while gold ETF bled
2/n Keep in mind, USD fiat had bottomed vs global currencies (DXY) to a 3y low. However, as vaccination grew and companies such as $NFLX reported subpar numbers as life returned to normal, there was less reason to bet on some catastrophic event
3/n By April S&P had fully recovered, breaking 4.000 and real estate prices boomed as well. Just as BTC reached $60k, Janet Yellen and Chistine Lagarde both started citing the need for crypto regulation due to illegal activities. Kraken CEO alerted the "crackdown" on April 12
Bob McAdoo, 5 time NBA All-Star, 1975 MVP, 2 rings
Michael Jordan, 10 time NBA All-Star, 5 MVP, 6 rings
Do you know what else they have in common?
👇👇 Keep reading, cause this story is amazing
The year was 1972, and Portland Trailblazers had the 1st draft pick. Their choice? LaRue Martin, a 6'11'' center from Loyola (Illinois). His team did 4W-20L in 1970-71, and 8W-14L on his senior year, scoring 19.6 points per game & 16 rebounds. Maybe not a bad pick, but....
... what was left behind was Bob McAdoo, #2 pick in 1972 draft by Buffalo Braves. The 6'9'' forward-center from U.North Carolina (26W-5L) did 19.5 points per game & 10 rebounds. Prior to that, McAdoo played at Vincennes, doing 25 points per game, and 11 rebounds. What followed?
1/ July 26 and 27 pumps caused same liquidation of today's 12% dump. Aggregate open interest remains above $5 billion, so no side is even close to 'defeated'. Quite the opposite, buyers remain very optimist as 3-month basis (contango) remains at healthy 12% annualized...
2/ Perpetual funding rate holding below 5% monthly fee also show no sign of buyers giving up. They've built such position below $10,400, so why worry? Options market remains rather calm as well...
3/ There are 33% more call options open interest than put (protection) ones. Delta (implied odds) for $12K on Aug 28th sits at 42%, a reasonable figure considering Black & Scholes is conservative. The $10.5K put (protection) has 31% odds, so market makers are bullish...
1/ I have a theory why @grayscaleinvest is buying so many #Bitcoins yet price doesn't budge. Spare 3 mins and I'll take you down the rabbit hole. First of all you need to understand GBTC trades at a premium to the held. Each share holds 0.00096112 BTCs, as shown below
2/ This gives us a Net Asset Value (NAV) of $9800 x 0.00096112 = $9.42, while GBTC US closed at $11.73. That' a hefty 24% premium, which used to be a lot higher as you can see @ ycharts.com/companies/GBTC… Keep in mind only accredited investors can buy directly from @grayscaleinvest
3/ meanwhile plebs who do not have $1 million investments gotta buy on secondary markets using their regular stock brokers. 401k vehicles, e*trade and robinhood retail traders have no other way for Bitcoin exposure. Then comes the lock up period...
Minha leitura do FED - não sou economista:
> Dar garantia pra financiamento auto, estudantil e cartao de crédito significa, obviamente, que alguns bancos grandes quebraram (1/8)
> Não dá pra saber se é o banco diretamente ou algum hedge fund que ele entubou essas picas pra desinflar o balanço, mas esse tipo de crédito é bancário (2/8)
> A sinalização do equivalente a nosso TESOURO dar garantia pra tiazinha que comprou bijuteria no POLISHOP em 12x no cartão de crédito é HORRÍVEL (3/8)