1. In March 2019 I wrote for @bopinion about how China did not appear to be "standing by Iran" as the Trump admin tightened maximum pressure sanctions. A year later, bilateral trade remains weak, and China's imports of Iranian oil have hit a new low.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2. China-Iran trade grew rapidly under Obama-era sanctions. This growth was widely interpreted as evidence of an alliance. But, China's trade grew with *everyone* in that period. Now, as commercial factors change and growth ends, the lack of a political partnership is exposed.
3. There appears to be a ceiling in Iran's non-oil exports to China. That's a problem. At a time of low oil prices, Iran is now running a trade deficit, putting strain on the ability of Iran's manufacturing sector to affordably source much needs parts and raw materials. 
4. Chinese and Iranian officials like to point to a "strategic partnership." But any functional alliance would see China stepping in to compensate for sanctions harms to Iran's economy. Nothing in the trade data suggests that this has been the case.
5. You could argue that China has thrown Iran a lifeline by continuing to purchase any oil in defiance of US sanctions.
But they certainly have not pulled Iran out of stormy seas. Iran keeps politely asking for help and China just keeps politely waving back from shore.
But they certainly have not pulled Iran out of stormy seas. Iran keeps politely asking for help and China just keeps politely waving back from shore.
6. There are a some key political implications. Iran needs to achieve political understanding with the U.S. to cast off the sanctions yoke and to get the economy growing again (especially by attracting European investment). China and Russia can't change that calculus.
7. To be clear, Iran's economy isn't anywhere near collapse. But the economy is stagnant again and that's untenable for a country with a politically engaged electorate and where a new administration is about to take charge next year, possibly for eight years.
8. The silver lining of this episode is that the "China will save us" line of political thought that emerged in Iran in the face of sanctions is being discredited. There is growing clarity in Iran about where resilience comes from and it's limits.
That bodes well for diplomacy.
That bodes well for diplomacy.
