Thread by @PandaScottish

[thread] This 3 part tweet from Andrew Neil

Essentially well it boils down to an old analogy now deployed in defense of Government

It's the wrong leaves on the track

The government prepared for the wrong pandemic

I have several issues with that

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1255022094229868544

Those who tried to belittle (and still do) coronavirus with flu comparison

So many took up that line - well when it wasn't being described as a hoax or a something being politically exploited by their opponents

france24.com/en/20200401-no…

Oh as a scientific backdrop to that flu vs coronavirus comparison

See here

arstechnica.com/science/2020/0…

Anway back to Andrew Neil and the wrong leaves on the track analogy

First of all you can go back to Exercise Winter Willow carried out in 2008

dh.gov.uk/en/Publication…

It has been archived so actually is available here

webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20130123192413…

And then to here

webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20110313145818…

And then to here

"We have also taken steps to protect healthcare workers from infection. There are stockpiles of facemasks and respirators available to protect healthcare workers who
come in close contact with infectious patients. "

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

"A government spokesman said that Nervtag, did not recommend stockpiling swabs and body bags.

Panorama reported that Nervtag said gowns, one of the items in shortest supply in the UK, should be purchased last June."

theguardian.com/world/2020/apr…

Now this is a good country comparison article:

I have picked a few quotes from it which I will expand upon

chathamhouse.org/expert/comment…

"produced in 2017-placed the risk of a pandemic influenza in the ‘highly likely and most severe’ category. It stood out from all the other identified risks, whereas an emerging disease (such as COVID-19) was identified as ‘highly likely but with moderate impact’."

"recommendations about the stockpile by NERVTAGhad been subjected to an ‘economic assessment’ and decisions reversed on, for example, eye protection."

"The UK chief medical officer Dame Sally Davies, when speaking at the World Health Organization about Operation Cygnus – a 2016 three-day exercise on a flu pandemic in the UK – reportedly said the UK was not ready for a severe flu attack and ‘a lot of things need improving’."

So going back to

"recommendations about the stockpile by NERVTAG had been subjected to an ‘economic assessment’ and decisions reversed on, for example, eye protection."

Chatham House referenced this article here:

theguardian.com/world/2020/mar…

"The expert advice was watered down after an “economic assessment” found a recommendation about providing visors or safety glasses to all hospital, ambulance/care staff who have close contact with pandemic patients would “substantially increase” the costs of stockpiling."

"A minute from the meeting stated that “a subsequent internal DH health economic assessment has revealed that following these recommendations would substantially increase the cost of the PPE component of the stockpile 4 to 6 fold, with a very low likelihood of cost-benefit"

"The department asked Nervtag “to clarify the detail of their advice in light of the costings, and reconsider its recommendations against the strength of the scientific evidence of the ocular route as a source of infection, and the likely incremental cost-recommendations”."

"The advisory committee then changed its official advice."

Now there are several issues there

Nervtag made a recommendation based on the science

Politicians rejected it based on cost-benefit analysis

And asked Nervtag to review their scientific recommendation taking into account cost "recommendations"

Now as a party/government who claim they follow the science - why would you ask an indepedent scientific body to revise its scientific recommendations ?

Is this a bit like Dominic Cummings and SAGE?

This in addition to the 40% value reduction in the pandemic stockpile which strangely occured during the period of Conservative rule from 2010 onwards

One single sentence the key quote in this article

"The department refused to answer the Guardian’s questions about the volume of the stockpile in 2019 compared with 2011."

theguardian.com/world/2020/apr…

As always there is one simple question

Why?

Why interfere with the recommendation of Nervtag?

By all means as a government make a choice whether you do or do not follow it

But stand by your decision

As always there is one simple question

Why refuse to answer questions about the volume of the stockpile in 2019 compared with 2011?

After all if levels of the stock pile were reduced in response to a re-assessment of needs that was backed by oh yes - the science - then a government would have no issues identifying these and being well....honest

If the 40% value reduction in the stockpile was related to how shall we call it oh yes "global trends" then you could of course defend that position there as well

If the 40% value reduction was certain medicines/anti-virals going out of date and there are new cheaper generics or branded medicines that allowed them to be replenished at lower cost value - then again you could defend that position as well

After all if only I could recall what senior "Conservative" politicians said about the concept of proroguing Parliament

Yes I am looking at you Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Matt Hancock and others

Though to be fair to Michael Gove - he did make clear what his view on principles were a long time ago - hence why he cannot recall his role in the Core Group of the Vote Leave campaign

Anyway here's a reminder of the praise of how the NHS is capable in responding to crisis

"The situation, once the pandemic strikes, will of course be on a far bigger scale. However, all the evidence is that the NHS is ready to step up to the mark in these situations."

That was Labour in 2007

bit.ly/2xfe8QC

Oh and here's a reminder of Conservative policitians who are now lauding NHS heroes

"Marr pointed out that a 1% cap in pay-rises for nurses until 2020 – coupled with a previous pay-freeze – means nurse's salaries would be down 11% when inflation is taken into account, Hunt said he did not agree with those numbers"

buzzfeed.com/laurasilver/a-…

"Danny Boyle has claimed his team came under pressure while planning the opening ceremony of the London 2012 Olympics to drop the sequence about the NHS."

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…

and here - Danny Boyle and Lord Coe faced the pressure from "ministers" - note the plural

telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics…

anyway back to the current day

there's so much to try and keep track of

at times you feel overwhelmed with the flood (to borrow a phrase from 2010-2020 racist xenophobes) at the torrent of news

I want to know what Matt Hancock feels a representative survey would be

Why can he not play the ball?

https://twitter.com/PandaScottish/status/1255040285782028288

Given Exercise Winter Willow was over a decade ago - why would you not demonstrate as a government that you had been competent in your management of health disaster provision-crisis-preparedness-foresight-not-hindsight

After all there have been numerous exercises since then

Like Operation Cygnus

Oh no hang on - the government are suppressing that

Again - a why?

Why supppress it?

https://twitter.com/PandaScottish/status/1253313061764640771

Now if Andrew Neil is correct in his reporting of the wrong type of pandemic being a factor in what was prepared for and the current state of government pandemic stocks in relation to the NHS across England, Wales, NI and Scotland

Then all that would have been needed was earlier in this crisis

That the government ramp up their mechanisms for dealing with pandemic stocks

Perhaps join those EU schemes around PPE and ventilators

Instead they didn't

They peddled a lazy susan spinning wheel of lies, deflection, diversion and garbage as they didn't be honest as to the crisis

Meanwhile as they did that - they also went for accussing medical staff of misusing PPE

Imagine parroting such an unsubstantiated rumour

But then again as Kwasi "many people are saying" Kwarteng demonstrated when talking about the unlawful proroguing of Parliament by as Robert Halfon describes him Boris "Lion King" Johnson

The party of Thatcher lazily denigrating the judiciary

Imagine sinking to such a nadir

Just a reminder back in February 2019

The government was alleged to be stock piling body bags in preparation for the consequences of a no deal brexit

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1095017099855097859

Also covered below

dailymail.co.uk/health/article…

So looking at this article

"Mr Hammond wrote precautionary efforts are being made to ensure medical supplies are not affected when the UK is due to leave the European Union on March 29."

"The NHS is preparing for 'all exit scenarios', which includes stockpiling body bags,"

So under Theresa May a government was honest enough that in order to prepare for a no deal brexit

they had to increase disaster supplies for the NHS

why could they not do the same in terms of the general pandemic disaster stockpile provision?

I actually am worried - if no deal is better than a bad deal - how many body bags would a bad deal require?

I so miss the days of a hollow con of cheats, liars, frauds, fools, fantasists, nativists and racists

A reminder on the plan

14th June 2016 Daily Telegraph

"To that end, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, the two leading figures in the Leave campaign, have drawn up a blueprint for implementing a Brexit. Sensibly, it calls for flexibility and a period of reflection."

And a reminder of the con of

They need us more than we need them

We hold all the cards

A brexit dividend

The sunlit uplands

The EU will collapse soon

Our liabilities bill will buy us a deal (whilst we also have zero liabilities)

Oh and

“Of course EU countries will continue trading with us on a tariff free basis - they would be damaging their own commercial interests if they didn’t. That’s why EU politicians would be banging down the door for a trade deal on Friday 24/6/16”

Still as Dominic Cummings put it

"Creating an exit plan that makes sense and which all reasonable people could unite around seems an almost insuperable task. Eurosceptic groups have been divided for years about many of the basic policy and political questions"

Now to wrap up

I wrote a thread yesterday on a litany of tropes being pushed by right wing apologists who are desperate to further I don't know - "the cause"

They are employing any and all tactics to deflect and shut down critique of Her Majesty's Government

Yes - the party of Thatcher - unable to play the ball

They affirm it with every breath

From being told to zip it

To questions being put aggressively

To stop being negative

To stop being unpatriotic

To stop politicising a crisis

To oh look at China

A thread on my response to someone peddling all those tropes

https://twitter.com/PandaScottish/status/1254788555093630983

@threadreaderapp unroll please