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While it is possible that we will see some big spikes as a result of states re-opening, the base case is probably a continued mix of plateaus, mild declines and mild increases, perhaps in a slightly different/worse mix than before (i.e. some declines turn into plateaus).
Moreover, the correlation between changes in state policies and changes in the # of cases is liable to be noisy. There may/probably will be something there if you look rigorously. But for every case that fit the prevailing narrative, there may be others that contradict it.
I could be wrong. But the lessons if you've looked at the different states and countries is that the data is noisy and fairly unpredictable, and often only loosely matches media narratives about high-profile events (e.g. Florida beaches) and who's generally doing a good job.
Meanwhile, the media is touting what are supposedly extremely dire projections by the White House (200K cases/day) but which actually have an extremely unclear provenance, and which could be used to make merely-awful numbers look good by comparison.
I've seen many times in election coverage when the media narrative gets overextended based on dubious analysis of noisy data and then abruptly has to reverse itself and winds up overcompensating in the other direction.
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