India's bind -- the most stringent lockdown measures & a weak fiscal stimulus package (0.8% of GDP). Govt is worried that at most it could double that to $60bn (1.5% GDP). Anything more triggers a sovereign debt rating downgrade i.e neoliberal discipline.
economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks…
economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks…
Services contract sending GDP down 15%. Slowdown in 2019 meant India came into Corona crisis w🌍's largest # of unemployed young ppl; was in its worst recession & deepest banking crisis since Independence. Tiny fiscal stimulus threatens lost decade. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
India's jobless numbers are in free-fall: 120 million in April. More than 1 in 4 workers unemployed in an economy with a threadbare safety net. Many returning from city daily-wage jobs to village farming. bbc.com/news/world-asi…
"We need to work out something for congested areas & crowded residential areas. This can be done by institutional quarantining of people who cannot be home quarantined due to lack of space."
70% of cases are in metros & centralised quarantine is only soln
livemint.com/news/india/cor…
70% of cases are in metros & centralised quarantine is only soln
livemint.com/news/india/cor…
Cases in India have grown ~7% (i.e doubling every ~10 days) despite 40 days of lockdown. To get R<1, Centralised Quarantine must be adopted in May.
Fortunately,death rate v low. If death rates reach the catastrophe of EU/US levels,it would be unimaginable
Fortunately,death rate v low. If death rates reach the catastrophe of EU/US levels,it would be unimaginable
The Economist on the important parallels between Kerala & Vietnam’s Eradication strategy (i.e not flatten the curve) of COVID-19. Both states chose compassion, community participation & centralised quarantine. economist.com/asia/2020/05/0…
In total denial about FAO's nightmare July forecast of locusts from E Africa flying 2500 kms over Arabian sea (do they eat seawater?) & attacking India & Pakistan's breadbaskets.
Govts are cooperating on '2-front war' Corona & Locusts 😱ht @LouDelBello undark.org/2020/04/20/ind…
Govts are cooperating on '2-front war' Corona & Locusts 😱ht @LouDelBello undark.org/2020/04/20/ind…
Horrifying causal picture:
2018-19 Warmer, Wetter in E Africa & Gulf as Indian Ocean Dipole was at max--> more vegetation --> Locust change lifecycle to 'gregarious' swarms & more egg laying --> spatial distribution extends on both ends in E Africa & India fao.org/ag/locusts/en/…
2018-19 Warmer, Wetter in E Africa & Gulf as Indian Ocean Dipole was at max--> more vegetation --> Locust change lifecycle to 'gregarious' swarms & more egg laying --> spatial distribution extends on both ends in E Africa & India fao.org/ag/locusts/en/…
Shameful moment. “To forcibly hold workers in place like this because they happen to be poor, and because their departure will be bad for your profits and your industry - can we call this anything other than a system of bonded labour?” -@_YogendraYadav
Indian govt steps up with a stimulus package -- 10% of India’s GDP. It should provide a floor under 25% unemployment, corporate bankruptcies & darkening global exports. Modi signals shift with a blast from the past:
Autarchy & Self-Reliance. livemint.com/news/india/ind…
Autarchy & Self-Reliance. livemint.com/news/india/ind…
Kerala #StampItOut Model: "Testing, intense contact tracing, instituting a longer quarantine, building 1000s of shelters for migrant workers, stranded by the sudden nationwide lockdown,& distributing millions of cooked meals to those in need" ht @NihaMasih washingtonpost.com/world/aggressi…
India's 10% GDP fiscal stimulus turns out to be smoke & mirrors. Almost half of it is Central banks' liquidity injections & credit guarantees. Actual fiscal outlays that provide safety net to industries & working poor, still ~2% GDP. indianexpress.com/article/explai…
A critical @ramakumarr thread summary of Finance Minister's Agriculture "economic package" (air quotes for hot air). Stingy, though there is beekeeping involved.
Why did migrants leave? Long-running internal migration from poor districts of eastern states (UP, Bihar); but main reason for exodus is India's hukou style system that denies welfare at place of residence. Long arc of underdevelopment that led to disaster epicenter.wcfia.harvard.edu/blog/indias-mi…
Sharp reading of India's caste-capitalism trajectory. No matter which ecological problem you turn (coal electricity, depleting aquifers, nitrogen overuse, eastern undervelopment) the politico-economic alliance of Green Revolution stands in the way. epicenter.wcfia.harvard.edu/blog/indias-mi…
India's Covid Projections worsen. Govt extends lockdown to June. Version 4 keeps travel ban; restaurants, schools, places of worship remain closed. But Centre releases grip & allows States to make red/green/orange zone designations. mha.gov.in/sites/default/…
covid19-projections.com/india
covid19-projections.com/india
Indian govt ignored scientists advice. ICMR recommended no lockdowns and instead prepare medical infra, door-to-door tests & centralised quarantine facilities. Lockdown v4 indicates increasing govt panic. Cases in Mumbai 23rd Mar: 67. Now? 15,000. @nit_set article-14.com/post/cases-sur…
Its bad enough with US & Western Europe pretending successful E Asian states are on the moon; the Indian govt can't seem to work out that Kerala is on the same planet. It started preparing #TestTraceIsolate in January!
Rajan urges Indian govt to focus. RBI Loan guarantees are slow. Hunger is the immediate problem. Food, veg, money & shelter to working poor must be priority to attract millions who have fled to villages. Now isn't the time for Privatization & fiscal hawks. thewire.in/political-econ…
50 days before crude lockdowns, On 4th Feb, NDMA advised #TestTraceIsolate preparations & quarantine of intl travellers. It wanted States to alert citizens to wear masks & avoid crowds & closed spaces. But Modi & Shah were too busy w elections campaigns.
Chances of locusts in India & Pakistan during monsoon have gone up strongly. Torrential rains & floods in E Africa of past few weeks has created more habitats for locust swarms. FAO forecasts of Arabian sea route no longer as wild. fao.org/ag/locusts/en/…
Locusts exploded in 2020 for the same reason E Africa had terrible flooding & Australia & Indonesia wildfires last yr: 2019 was strongest Indian Ocean Dipole on record. That temperature differential between E & W Indian Ocean drives climate much like Niños bbc.com/news/science-e…
Controlling locusts requires pesticides & workers. They multiplied exponentially in E Africa as pesticide supplies broke down amid pandemic. New Delhi, Islamabad, Beijing & Tehran are now racing to create joint stockpiles & operations. 2020, Pax Locusta? chinadialogue.net/article/show/s…
"Forgive me for speaking bluntly, but I’d like to lay out for you very clearly what the world is facing at this very moment. At the same time while dealing with a COVID19 pandemic, we are also on the brink of a hunger pandemic" - UN WFP to Security Council chinadialogue.net/article/show/s…
Given Mumbai is sliding to New York disaster (where ~20% of ppl got infected) the important thing is to break chains of transmission between ppl with #TestTraceIsolate. Most can't self-isolate at home. Great to see Govt's Covid care centers! ht @XihongLin niss.org/sites/default/…
Happy to see Mumbai step up. Its iconic bldgs - from Taj, Bandra's Mehboob studies, NSCI, St Xaviers have turned into covid care centers. Played tiny role pushing govt to adopt Kerala/ Xihong Lin's quarantine model. yeh hai Bombay meri jaan! pic @ompsyram
financialexpress.com/photos/busines…
financialexpress.com/photos/busines…
Mumbai's outbreak is bad. Fraction of tests coming back positive has increased for a month. It implies testing isn't keeping up with spreading infections. Given 1000 deaths, & IFR of 0.4%. A rough estimate of true infected ~1000/0.4% =250,000. Just ~30K found. fig ht @ShamikaRavi
Clear, distilled lessons learnt from experience analysing Wuhan, Europe & US in Prof Xihong Lin's testimony to the UK Parliament Science committee.
For @ShamikaRavi @muditkapoor India covid briefings. committees.parliament.uk/download/file/…
slides here: niss.org/sites/default/…
For @ShamikaRavi @muditkapoor India covid briefings. committees.parliament.uk/download/file/…
slides here: niss.org/sites/default/…
OMG!! Locusts have hit Jaipur & Madhya Pradesh in middle of India. Controlling locusts requires pesticides & workers. Indian govt. cannot let them get out of hand. It will make the situation in Mumbai & Ladakh seem breezy. livemint.com/news/india/loc…
Hospitalization surge in Mumbai is exactly like stories from Italy in Feb, NY in March. 1 difference: expensive pvt hospitals are empty while public ones are overwhelmed. Govt is now requistioning pvt hospitals, capping prices & launching #TestTraceIsolate bbc.com/news/world-asi…
2020, India: Virus spreading in its great city. 1 of 4 workers out of a job. Intense heatwave hitting 47C in Gangetic plains. Cyclone devastation in Bengal. Another forming in Arabian Sea. And locust swarms gathering for a once-in-a-century attack. W.T.F nytimes.com/2020/05/27/wor…
Imagine if every man, woman and child in Canada were on the move. For weeks. India's forced urban exodus during Lockdown was one of the most cruel and shameful episodes it its history. Thread. epicenter.wcfia.harvard.edu/blog/indias-mi…
