So what the hell just happened in Poland last night? Thread. 🧵⚖️🇵🇱
1. At 10 PM, the presidential elections scheduled for the 10th of May were supposed to be carried out by postal voting, but the law on organising these elections was still in the Senate. (1/10)
1. At 10 PM, the presidential elections scheduled for the 10th of May were supposed to be carried out by postal voting, but the law on organising these elections was still in the Senate. (1/10)
2. Half an hour later, the leader and co-leader of the ruling "coalition-but-party", announced that new elections will be called immediately after the Polish Supreme Court ... finds the 10th of May elections invalid due to not having taken place. (2/10)
3. Yes, you read that right, it's two politicians who are NOT members of the government declaring that elections (organised by the government) will not take place and they know that the Supreme Court will find them invalid. (3/10)
4. Can this even legally be possible? Well, it's not like elections not happening for some last-minute reason is pure science-fiction - imagine having an entirely digital vote and the govt discovering, on the election day, that the system was hacked and compromised. (4/10)
5. But the Polish constitutional law doesn't cover such a situation. One can imagine that in such case, once the Supreme Court declares the elections invalid, a new vote would be called under the usual procedure. (5/10)
6. However, yesterday's leaks indicate that the "new" elections will be held with the existing candidates retaining their place on the ballot. That's legally impossible. There are no provisions for carrying over your candidacy to another election. (6/10)
7. Today, the Constitutional Tribunal, captured by the ruling party, will decide on an earlier notion from the Marshal (speaker) of Sejm on whether the law that would allow her to postpone the elections is constitutional. (7/10)
8. The CT will likely say ... whatever the ruling party wants it to say. But it's deciding on a law that apparently if yesterday's declarations are to be followed up, will not apply at all. (8/10)
9. I guess the conclusion is: the law doesn't matter in Poland anymore. The will of the ruling coalition is the law, as long as they can dress it in some veneer of legality. The elections will happen when Kaczyński wants them to happen, as long as he has the majority. (9/10)
10. Which is not to say that legal analysis of what's happening is pointless. At some point in the future, some #RuleOfLaw respecting bodies will examine this mess. (10/10)
