Thread by @qataharraymond

There are some important points that came off tonight's #NTVOnTheSpot that we shouldn't sweep under the rug and now is a good time to engage a discussion mode over them.

1. That the 2020/21 budget that was passed by parliament was drawn, debated and passed absent of the fact that #COVID19 will restructure the global, regional & local economy

The projected revenues, expenditures and debt to be incurred will all be different by the time of it's implementation in June. For example, Uganda's 621k tax paying salaried workers will reduce substantially so PAYE revenues will fall.

Multilateral lending agencies which are dipping into their wallets to fund #COVID19 responses will not have money for our 'infrastructure development' jazz.

Even the estimates Uganda is using to approach the lenders will have to change, for example our tax to GDP ratio is 14% but three months down the road with delay in goods transportation, layoffs and all, no bank will believe that figure.

So what must happen? As @JuliusMukunda said on the programme #NTVOnTheSpot, a budget recall must start to occupy the minds of our legislators & civil servants. Is it possible now? Yes! Just get MP's to stop their fuss over returning our money and they do their job!

The new budget must reflect the new realities, flesh on travel expenditure, luxury, entertainment, events must be cut and redirected to salaries for teachers [The biggest component of workers in the economy] that way, production will remain sustained based on their consumption

Ofcourse, this will spur debate on recurrent vs development spending but that is actually why we pay MP's and their researchers in parliament - to appropriate.

2. The economic stimulus package. Cabinet has haggled over it for a month now. That's too long. A stimulus package is not a one time offering, it is a revolving offering, the areas that recover feed the ones that are bleeding. Can we have the national package already?

A formal stimulus package that goes through institutions is very likely a recipe for failure. Get me right on this. 4 of our 5 million employed people are in the informal economy, govt must behave they way they behave to save them. It's quicker than asking them to do so, why?...

A welder in Kisekka will not walk to Absa or stanbic for a loan if they werent walking there before. They will more likely borrow from friends - can we explore divested saccos and fund them separately? The good news, we have enough accounting officers to bring our money back.

Also money isn't all the people will need, some people will have to reskill to survive; air hostesses, hotel staff. Can the stimulus package include knowledge sharing from already established government centers?

3. The same instruments used to raise salaries for MP's accounting officers etc, are capable of being used to cut them.

All I'm saying is if everyone is taking a paycut, then it would be nice to know even the guns at the top are making some sacrifices

Unpopular opinion: Mid-term access to savings is a bad gamble. In what economy will you invest the little savings? What will you then do post-covid when you retire? Also, the nature of the pensions business is so badly setup that a 'run-on-the-bank' type of situation will kill it

Another unpopular opinion: If market women aren't going back to their homes why are the lights even switching off at the Ministry of Finance building?

'We must be in this together'.

And finally, my rosary is out for our over 60% import substitution plan. If it doesn't work, we shall have a new government from the global masters with specific boxes to tick.

We shall get through - and over this!

My misgivings are ofcourse informed by alot of literature around this subject post WWII

Find attached a screenshot